Ukrainians advance as Russia struggles in chaotic defence

The Kremlin is still scratching its head, wondering how the Ukrainians managed to occupy approximately 1,100 square kilometres of Russian territory within a week while Russian fighters in Donbas captured barely five square kilometres during the same time. Despite several days of operations, they have not been able to stop the Ukrainians or even bring in the appropriate reinforcements to bolster the Chechen units, the Federal Security Service Border Protection Service, and the National Guard fighting units.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have leveraged all their strengths and their opponent's weaknesses. Firstly, they maintained the entire operation under strict secrecy and hid the movement of six brigades, including five heavy ones, right to the Russian border from Russian imagery reconnaissance. In this case, they ensured the element of surprise.

The next step was to cut off the defenders from their support base. Thanks to advanced radio-electronic warfare systems and excellent imagery reconnaissance, they superbly isolated the battlefield in every possible way. The former allowed them almost completely to isolate the battlefield and neutralize the opponent's drones. The latter provided the ability to anticipate Russian moves and strike mechanized columns before they reached the front. Ukrainians have already destroyed self-propelled howitzers and tanks twice while still on transport trailers.

In addition, Ukrainian soldiers strictly monitored what was published on social media. Based on the published photos and videos, it was impossible to locate where they were. It was different for the Russians. Experience from the first year of the war didn't teach them anything. Near Kursk, a journalist live-broadcasted the march of a transport column carrying Msta-S self-propelled howitzers. Shortly after, Ukrainians located it using reconnaissance drones and destroyed it with HIMARS systems.

The Ukrainians are doing very well when exploiting operational depth, as demonstrated during defensive battles in 2022. In the attack, they utilized the experience and knowledge gained during cooperation and training at NATO training grounds. The 22^nd Independent Mechanized Brigade, spearheading the attack, was equipped with Polish PT-91 tanks and BWP-1 armoured personnel carriers and trained at Polish training grounds.

The Ukrainians executed the operation according to Western standards. First, they neutralized Russian reconnaissance, isolated the battlefield, then special units moved in, followed by rapid battalion combat groups from mechanized brigades. At this point, they managed to leverage their strengths and the weaknesses of the Russian army.

Since the beginning of the war, the Russians have proven to be extremely poorly trained in manoeuvre warfare. Just as they lost at Chernihiv, Brovary, and Kharkiv, they failed at Kursk. This is due to the weakness of their training system, which prefers routine. Soldiers are to move from point A to B, open fire there and drive out the opponent. Training scenarios do not anticipate any problems. Therefore, Russian commanders have trouble adapting to new conditions when something deviates from the assumed plans. This applies not only to field commanders but also to staff officers.

The Russians in the Kursk oblast had no manoeuvre reserves. They could quickly transfer to the threatened area. All trained and equipped forces were either on the front lines or in the rear during combat readiness restoration. The command did not expect a Ukrainian strike and underestimated Ukrainian capabilities. Additionally, they were completely caught off guard.

Only by the third day of the operation did they start bringing in individual companies, such as the 810^th Independent Guard Naval Infantry Brigade and the 155^th Independent Guard Naval Infantry Brigade from the Volchansk area, which were resting after fighting for Volchansk. Four battalions from the operational reserve of the Northern Military Group were also brought in from the Kharkiv direction, which was supposed to be used for an assault on Kharkiv province.

Other units began to be called in directly from training grounds where they were undergoing training. Three reinforced mechanized rifle battalions from training regiments, primarily composed of conscripts from the fall, were sent to the breach from the Kursk bases.

Units withdrawn to the General Staff's strategic reserve after suffering losses in Donbas had to interrupt their reorganization. This includes the 15^th Tank Regiment from the 69^th Mechanized Division, two battalions from the 7^th Air Assault Division, the 38^th Mechanized Rifle Brigade, and the 64^th Mechanized Rifle Brigade.

Russian actions are marked by chaos and a lack of planning. The localized Ukrainian assault forced the Russians even to bring in training units. The Ukrainians exploited the fact that the Russians had concentrated almost all their forces in Donbas, where they were slowly advancing and lacked units to protect the borders. Announcements published by local authorities evidence the scale of the problem.

Kremlin propaganda insists that the Ukrainians are suffering heavy losses and that the "invincible army" is driving them out. The regional authorities' communication channels tell a different story, calling for forming militia units akin to the German Volkssturm. Even the rhetoric used by the Russians is similar to that of Joseph Goebbels, who spoke of the "final goal of exterminating the German people."

The Russians talk about driving out fascists and defending Russian values against the rotten West. One such unit is led by special forces veteran Sergey Evdokimov, known for recording propaganda statements on social media. Now, he encourages "healthy, patriotic Russian men" to join volunteer units.

Such spontaneous units are forming due to personnel shortages in services. Police officers are starting to be sent to the front, as are training recruits and even aviation technicians. The defence of the Kursk oblast is extremely chaotic, and even rear units – logisticians, cooks, and clerks – are slowly being sent to the front. Russia is increasingly showing that it is a poorly managed empire on clay feet.