Ukrainian missile range limits preclude strikes on Russian tank bases
Most post-Soviet tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery systems have been stationed outdoors for decades at several bases across Russia. Why don't the Ukrainians attack them? One OSINT analyst provided an answer to this question.
The Ukrainian agency UNIAN highlighted an intriguing analysis published on the Covert Cabal channel. As the war in Ukraine continues and substantial losses are incurred, the bases with Soviet-era equipment have become the primary source of supply for additional tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery systems for Putin's army in Ukraine. However, there has never been an attempt to attack one of these locations.
Bases with Soviet-era equipment: Western weapons cannot reach them
From the Ukrainian perspective, one of the main issues highlighted by the analyst is the distance from the Russian bases to the Ukrainian borders. Most of them are located beyond the Urals, including in the Far East, such as warehouses in Dachnoye near Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, over 3,700 miles from Ukraine.
The Western allies have not provided Ukraine with weapons of such range. The United States has sent ATACMS missiles, which allow attacks on targets up to a maximum of 186 miles away, and the United Kingdom and France have supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles with a range of about 311 miles. Even if Ukraine were supplied with Tomahawk missiles with a range of about 1,243 miles, some bases with Soviet-era equipment would still be out of reach.
Drone attacks in this case would be unprofitable
Theoretically, Ukraine could use another weapon—its own long-range drones, which have already been successful in many strikes on Russian refineries. However, these facilities are closer to Ukraine, and their nature means a drone can cause significant damage.
Meanwhile, sending a drone to a base with armored equipment and executing a precise attack would at best destroy one tank and possibly cause slight damage to a few nearby elements. A massive attack of long-range drones, which are too valuable for Ukraine, would be necessary. Additionally, for the furthest bases, risky actions by sabotage groups already operating within Russia would still be needed. Moreover, according to the analyst, the old tanks stationed outdoors already require repairs due to age and technical condition, which are often very complicated and costly. Almost all such tanks are sent for repairs before being deployed to the front.
Covert Cabal concludes that therefore, considering the limited number, range, and power of the drones Ukraine possesses for strikes deep in Russia, it is much more justified to use them against more valuable and vulnerable targets, such as refineries.
