Ukrainian intelligence gains upper hand with precision strikes

On Monday, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) released a statement identifying General Igor Kirillov as the person responsible for authorizing the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers. General Kirillov was the commander of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defence Forces of the Russian Armed Forces. He was said to be responsible for nearly 4,800 attacks.

By Tuesday, he was already dead after a bomb hidden in an electric scooter exploded. Along with him, his aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, was also killed. According to the Russians, the attack was carried out by a 29-year-old resident of Uzbekistan, who was arrested on Wednesday. According to Russian services (FSB), the perpetrator of the attack admitted that he had been "recruited by Ukrainian special services."

After the attack, Ukrainian services confirmed in unofficial talks with world agencies that they had killed a Russian general in Moscow. According to a source in Ukrainian services (quoted by the BBC), the general was a "legitimate target" of the attack. Why? Because, as the Ukrainian side claims, he was a war criminal who personally gave orders to use chemical weapons.

The Kremlin and Russian propagandists mostly tried to present Kirillov's murder as an unprovoked act of terrorism rather than a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, tried to appease ultranationalist circles by claiming that the Russian military would avenge Kirillov's death by attacking Ukraine's military-political leadership.

However, this is not the first time in recent history that a high-ranking Russian military official has died in an attack. On November 13 in Sevastopol, Valery Trankovsky, the chief of staff of the 41st Missile Ship Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet, was killed when the car he was driving to work exploded on a street in Sevastopol. This time, a bomb hidden under the driver's seat exploded.

Another high-ranking official eliminated recently is Sergey Yevsukov, the head of the Olenivka penal colony. In 2022, many Ukrainian prisoners, including defenders of Mariupol and the Azovstal plant, were held there. In December, it was revealed that Mikhail Shatsky, deputy head of the Experimental Mars Design Bureau and head of its software department, was also killed. He was responsible for the development of the control system of the new Kh-69 cruise missile, which has already been used for attacks in Ukraine.

- This indicates the professional and precise actions of Ukrainian services on Russian territory, right under Putin's nose. The SBU is carrying out so-called targeted killings, which means "selective elimination." These are planned actions aimed at killing specific individuals, says retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a former Military Intelligence Service officer and an analyst specializing in security issues, to Wirtualna Polska.

In addition to personnel operations, Ukrainian services also conduct intelligence operations targeting specific goals, such as ammunition and weapon storage or military airports.

- Ukraine has the ability to conduct such operations on the territory of the Russian Federation, and Russia cannot prevent them. This does not speak well of Putin's services. The Russian FSB is caught off guard because they have not dealt with such actions before. It's one thing to track and prevent a terrorist group attack, and another to fight Ukrainian intelligence that can penetrate Russian territory. These are delicate and precise operations, comments Korowaj.

According to Marcin Faliński, a former officer of the Intelligence Agency and author of books, Ukrainian services may find it easier to carry out such operations on Russian territory due to an extensive network of contacts and long-standing family ties between the societies.

- Despite the ongoing war, the ties between Russian and Ukrainian society remain strong. The officers killed had long served in the Russian army. They may have had relations with someone from Ukraine, whether through family, school, or career-related connections. As a result, Ukrainian services can reach them more easily than in another country, claims Marcin Faliński.

In his assessment, if Kyiv is indeed behind the series of attacks, it is the work of two intelligence services: the SBU, Ukraine's internal service, and the HUR, Ukrainian military intelligence. - Among them, there are no such frictions as in the Kremlin between various services. Besides, they share a common denominator, which is the war and the task of inflicting as many blows as possible on the opponent, says Faliński.

- On the other hand, the Russian FSB, which did not monitor Ukrainian services' actions on Russian territory, may not necessarily enjoy Putin's trust. It was the FSB that insisted on starting the offensive, convinced it was sufficiently prepared for the invasion. It invested significant resources and pushed the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, to attack. Putin was furious later, reminds Faliński.

According to retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj, a whole operational team of Ukrainian services prepares for attacks on Russian territory. - And they don't do it in one day or with just one hired person. The FSB missed the case, which does not put Russia in a good light. And this is not the end of such actions; there will be more, predicts retired Lt. Col. Maciej Korowaj.

Marcin Faliński points out yet another aspect.

- We can never rule out disputes or actions by Russian services and decisions by Putin himself. We've already seen the accidental falling out of windows of businessmen, so we can imagine that the military could rub someone the wrong way in the Kremlin as well. Russia is a state of mind, and it's easiest to blame Ukraine, summarizes Faliński.