Ukrainian forces achieve breakthrough in bold Kursk region offensive

Some commanders did not believe in the success of the Ukrainian offensive on Russian territory. They thought that General Syrsky had risked everything. And he won. He showed his sophistication and character, and the troops were in high spirits. "We haven't seen this kind of enthusiasm since the liberation of Kherson," Ukrainian soldiers told in an interview.

Trading trenches for a march

"I can't remember the last time we felt as relaxed as we do now. I can't reveal specific numbers, but there have been significantly fewer assaults and shellings," says "Shaytan," a commander fighting near Vovchansk.

In May of this year, the Russians surprised the Ukrainians. They leisurely crossed the unmined border with the Kharkiv region and swiftly reached the border town of Vovchansk. While media outlets were flooded with questions ("How is it possible that in the third year of the invasion, the state border remains unsecured?"), the military quickly managed to pull support from other front sections and halt Russia in the city's eastern part.

The swift Russian offensive taught Ukrainians two things: just because fortifications exist on paper doesn't mean they exist in reality. Most importantly, in this war, the most reliable solutions have already been tested. They just need improvement.

For over a week now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been conducting a daring charge in the Kursk region. Like the Russians, the Ukrainians have almost effortlessly penetrated enemy territory, putting Moscow in a severe dilemma: continue trying to seize Donbas or defend its own soil?

"We don't know what will happen next, but the offensive has already succeeded at this stage. The Russians have withdrawn some troops from the front in Ukraine," says Ruslan Mykula, co-creator of the Deep State Map project—an interactive war map in Ukraine based on open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Soldiers confirm that a sense of relief can be felt on some front sections, but so far, the most significant effect of the successes in the Kursk region is the boost in military morale.

"We haven't seen this kind of enthusiasm since the liberation of Kherson. Many of us would gladly trade the monotony of the trenches for a march in the Kursk region," says one soldier.

All or nothing

The operation on Russian territory gave Ukraine hope for breaking out of the stalemate that had been hanging over the front for a year. However, not everyone believed in its success from the beginning.

"I found out about the offensive 48 hours before it started. I was very skeptical. The plan seemed recklessly daring," one soldier said.

Skepticism also prevailed among commanders. Many did not understand the operation's objectives and did not believe in its success. They saw it as a risk of losing a large amount of equipment and soldiers, which, given Ukraine's limited resources and the dire situation in Donbas, seemed like a gamble. Failure could have hastened the fall of Donbas.

At the end of July, Ukrainian media reported on the dismissal of Emil Ishkolov, the commander of the elite 80th Galician Air Assault Brigade, which had been holding positions near Bakhmut for a year. The personnel changes sparked opposition within the brigade and outrage in society. Voices suggested that the dismissal of an experienced commander without an apparent reason must result from some political maneuvers. As the scandal gained momentum, Ishkolov gave an interview where he accused the command of assigning tasks "disproportionate to the brigade's strength."

Today, the 80th Brigade is at the forefront of the offensive penetrating deep into Russia, as confirmed by soldiers in an interview. "Now we all understand what Ishkolov meant. He left because he didn't believe in the success of the operation in the Kursk region."

Fear of the offensive

Ishkolov had plenty of reasons to doubt the success of the planned offensive. The plan assumed that only experienced brigades, fighting on the front without interruption for over two years, would participate. Fatigue, a constant hunger for ammunition, lack of equipment, decimated ranks, and, above all, traumatic experiences from last year's counteroffensive weighed on the pessimistic approach.

"There was fear of a repeat of 2023. Then, the Russians knew exactly where we intended to strike because information about the offensive freely circulated in the press. It was absurd. We pushed forward into mined positions that were precisely shelled by Russian artillery. The losses were enormous. The same happened when we tried to cross the bridgehead in Krynki on the left bank of the Dnieper. The operation was doomed to failure because the Russians knew exactly where our naval infantry was going to land," we hear.

Despite this, political and military leadership pressured brigade commanders to prepare for the offensive more quickly. On August 6, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) launched the attack. Pessimism quickly turned into euphoria.

"The Russians thought Russian volunteer units carried out the attack. They expected the scenario of previous raids to repeat: a brief diversion and a return to base. Only when our troops penetrated 6 miles into Russia did they start to suspect something. By the second or third day, they were pulling reserves in a panic. In doing so, the Russians made a serious mistake," says Mykula.

Low-value units man the first line of Russian defence built along the border without combat experience. The Ukrainians quickly breached it, capturing, according to the most modest estimates, 200 Russian soldiers.

"This was the difference between Ukraine and Russia. We had some neglect, but new lines of defence were built just a short distance from the border. In Russia, the second line was just outside Sudzha (a town located a few miles from the border). It turned out to be even weaker. The AFU practically entered the city without resistance," explains Mykula.

Syrsky's success

The surprise effect was devastating. Russia was not prepared for such an audacious action. It is unlikely that Russian intelligence warned the command about a potential Ukrainian operation. Western partners in Kyiv were also unaware of it.

"The command learned its lesson from last year's counteroffensive when most leaks came from the West. This time, the operation was kept strictly confidential until the last moment. Not even the Americans knew. This is one of the main reasons it succeeded," says one Ukrainian military officer.

And the later positive reaction from the West, the visit of Republican senators to Ukraine, only confirmed to Kyiv that everyone loves winners.

General Oleksandr Syrsky, the chief commander of the AFU, also strengthened his authority. He took this position in February 2024 amid controversy. The military, especially Ukrainian society, did not want to agree to the departure of the revered General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. Zelensky was accused of being jealous of his popularity and, therefore, wishing to sideline Zaluzhnyi. Syrsky, on the other hand, was described as a "Soviet general" who didn't care about casualties. The fact that Syrsky spent his childhood in Russia didn't help either.

"The operation in the Kursk region was Syrsky's idea. It showcased his character and bold style as the chief commander. Unlike his predecessor, who during the 2023 offensive stayed in Kyiv while others handled direct command, Syrsky has been at the front since the beginning of the operation. He personally commands and oversees the operation," says one commander.

"You can't plan a perfect offensive, but at this stage, the assessment is positive. We are taking losses, but it's nothing compared to 2023, when our soldiers were losing limbs in minefields. That greatly lowered morale in the ranks. Now, most of the wounded have gunshot wounds, which means they will eventually return to the ranks."

Russia withdraws troops

According to official data, Ukraine currently controls about 390 square miles in the Kursk region. "We don't yet have official confirmation that the AFU has captured Sudzha, but the front line already runs beyond the city. This means our forces are clearing the area, capturing Russian soldiers," says Mykula.

Military experts stress that it's difficult to predict the situation's development at this stage, as no one knows the exact goal of the Ukrainian offensive. Much will depend on the resources available to both sides.

"This could just be the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, and as soon as Russia pulls reserves to the Kursk region, Ukraine could attack in another direction. This would force Russia to weaken its positions on the Ukrainian front, increasing the chances of reclaiming occupied territories," says Mykhailo Samus, a military analyst and head of the think tank The New Geopolitics Research Network, who served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine for 12 years.

However, it's doubtful that Ukraine will push deeper into Russian territory.

"Our maximum is 60 miles. After that, we'd need to build supply depots on Russian territory, as logistics would become problematic. But this problem also affects Russia, as there was no front line near the Kursk region, so they have to build supply lines from scratch," explains Mykula.

For now, Russia is pulling individual units from the Ukrainian front to avoid weakening its positions. According to analysts from Deep State Map, so far, Moscow has withdrawn units from Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region and Pokrovsk, as well as from the Lyman and Kupiansk directions.

The effects are already visible. Experienced units relocated to the Kursk region have slowed the Ukrainian advance.

"A steady front line is slowly forming. The AFU is fortifying, building fortifications. This means that Russia will have to expend significant effort and time to reclaim such a large territory. I doubt it will be able to maintain the pace of the offensive in Donbas in this situation. If it wants to reclaim the Kursk region, it will have to forgo advancing on Pokrovsk," Mykula believes.

Stagnation and standstill

The offensive in the Kursk region poses a dilemma not just for Russia.

By sending experienced units to the Kursk region, Ukraine showed that it had learned another lesson from the 2023 offensive. Then, the main striking force was the 47th Brigade, made up of volunteers mobilized just months before the attack.

Now, the elite of the Ukrainian army is fighting in the Kursk region, and newly formed units have been sent to the front to replace the experienced brigades. Critics point out that Kyiv has opened a second front in Russia at the expense of weakening the first.

The soldiers themselves believe that the offensive has already succeeded at this stage. However, soldiers fighting in the Lyman and Kupiansk directions admit that they haven't yet felt a decrease in the intensity of fighting.

"The situation is consistently bad. But moving the war onto their territory has boosted morale," says one soldier.

According to him, after a series of scandals swept through the Ukrainian army in recent months, soldiers again have enthusiasm and hope to break the stalemate on the front.

"Many have been sitting in the same trenches for two years, under constant shelling. They know where we are, we know where they are. And nothing changes. Stagnation and standstill."

Another soldier, fighting near Chasiv Yar, a strategically important city in Donbas where fierce battles are taking place, notes that the Russians have been pressing even harder on Ukrainian positions in recent days.

"We repel one assault, and another wave comes soon after. It's very difficult; we are suffering losses. Logistics at the positions is virtually impossible due to drones. The offensive in the Kursk region hasn't changed the situation on our front. We don't know how this operation will end, but surely the command has a plan. And we have something to hold on to."