Ukraine struggles with heavy losses and mobilization challenges

Over two years have passed since Russia's aggression against Ukraine. "Wall Street Journal," citing confidential Ukrainian estimates, indicates that since then, over six million Ukrainians have fled the country, 80,000 have been killed, and 400,000 have been wounded.

Confidential Ukrainian estimates from early 2024 indicate that the number of fallen Ukrainian soldiers is 80,000, and the wounded are 400,000, reports the "Wall Street Journal." Conversely, the estimated Russian losses vary but may reach nearly 200,000 killed and 400,000 wounded, the report says.

Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, over six million people have left Ukraine, and the population in areas controlled by Kyiv has dropped to 25-27 million, according to UN data cited by the "WSJ." As of the end of April 2024, according to Eurostat, Poland was providing temporary protection to 949,365 Ukrainian refugees, a decrease of 1,600 people compared to March. This is less than in 2022, when the number of those protected exceeded 1.3 million. Meanwhile, in Germany, the number of Ukrainian refugees rose to 1,277,655.

"WSJ" also highlighted the issue of mobilizing Ukrainian men and their age. According to "WSJ," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky avoids mobilizing men aged 18 to 25 because they do not yet have children. Their loss could further worsen the country's demographic prospects, as Ukrainian demographers emphasize.

In response, Ukraine has limited itself to partial mobilization and resists Western pressure to send more soldiers to the front. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers has now surpassed 43 years, the report says.

In December 2023, the Ukrainian president stated that the army proposes mobilizing an additional 450,000-500,000 people. "No one knows the answer to the question of when the war between Ukraine and Russia will end; however, if we maintain unity as a nation, we can get closer to victory," declared President Volodymyr Zelensky at a press conference summarizing 2023.

War, victory, defeat, stagnation depends on many decisions and risks, but above all on ourselves. However, we are not ready to surrender our country. If we maintain our goals and do everything we can, I am convinced that we can bring this victory closer," emphasized the President of Ukraine at that time.

In May 2024, the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, passed a law allowing the release of specific categories of prisoners so they could join the military on a contract basis during mobilization and martial law.

The right to be released from serving their sentence to join the army will not apply to those convicted of deliberate murder, pedophilia, corruption, and crimes against state security, explained the Ukrainska Pravda portal.

As explained by Olena Shuliak, a deputy from the ruling Servant of the People party, those released from prison to perform military service could be those who have no more than three years remaining on their sentence. "Prisoners with longer sentences and those sentenced to life will be denied without the right to appeal," she emphasized in a comment for Ukrainska Pravda.