Ukraine and Russia edge towards key energy truce talks

- There’s very early talks about potentially restarting something. There’s now talks on the energy facilities – informed a diplomat involved in the talks.

The agreement could be the most significant step towards de-escalation since the war began. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that this agreement could signal Russia's readiness for broader peace talks.

In recent weeks, both sides have reduced the frequency of attacks on energy infrastructure – Ukrainian officials believe this results from agreements between intelligence services.

The upcoming winter poses a challenge for Ukraine following numerous Russian missile attacks that have destroyed nearly half of the country’s energy infrastructure. Ukraine relies mostly on nuclear power plants and energy imports from Europe. Kyiv and Moscow previously agreed that mutual cessation of attacks is in their interest.

However, according to a former Kremlin official, Putin is unlikely to agree to an agreement until Russian troops expel Ukrainian soldiers from the Kursk region, where Ukraine controls about 960 square kilometres.

- As long as the [Ukrainians] are trampling the land in Kursk, Putin will hit Zelenskyy’s energy infrastructure – claims a source.

Despite this, Ukraine plans to continue attacks on refineries and other targets to pressure Russia. According to a Ukrainian official, Kyiv has limited pressure means besides long-range attacks.

The invasion of Kursk led to the collapse of the August talks, which were to be held in Qatar, mediating since June following Zelensky's peace summit in Switzerland, where Russia was not invited. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesperson, declined to comment, as did Zelensky's office.

According to the Financial Times' sources, Kyiv and Moscow agreed not to attack energy infrastructure last year. Because of this unofficial agreement, Russia refrained from major attacks in the winter of 2022–23. However, Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian refineries at the beginning of 2023 following an unsuccessful counteroffensive, which Moscow considered a breach of the agreement.

Despite US warnings, Kyiv continued attacks. In retaliation, Moscow intensified attacks on Ukrainian power plants, destroying, among others, the Trypilska power station about 40 kilometres from Kyiv.

Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has struck at least nine out of the 32 main Russian refineries. Sergey Vakulenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center reported that at the peak of the attacks, 17% of Russia’s refining capacity was damaged; however, most damage was repaired.

Ukraine faces an energy crisis as missing capacities pose a threat before winter. Putin suggested that Russia is open to peace negotiations "based on the realities on the ground." However, he demanded full control over four frontline regions and lifting Western sanctions, which Ukraine rejected.

Putin added that Turkey, which mediated the negotiations in 2022, recently offered new peace proposals that Ukraine rejected. - Clearly they're not ready yet. The ball's in their court – commented the Russian President.