Turbulent tides: Russia faces 2025 crossroads amidst global pressures

The year 2025 is shaping up as a time for crucial decisions and changes in the power structure of the Russian Federation. One of the most important topics in Russia is the anticipated announcement of the end date of the military actions in Ukraine. The Kremlin, compelled by increasing international pressure, may announce the conclusion of the conflict in February, according to military analyst Maciej Korowaj.

- Donald Trump and his administration are focusing on achieving a quick resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin and his circle understand that they no longer achieve their political objectives through military means. Occupied eastern Ukraine will not become pro-Russian, predicts Lt. Col. (ret.) Maciej Korowaj in a conversation with WP.

According to the WP interviewee, Russia will aim to undermine Ukraine's political independence, hoping that at least six months after signing agreements (ceasefire or partial peace), necessary elections will be held in the country.

According to Korowaj, last fall, Russian territorial gains were limited. Battles are ongoing for small towns like Pokrovsk in the eastern part of Ukraine. - However, Russia's losses are significant. Approximately 40 eliminated soldiers per square kilometre gained is more than the statistics from World War I. Russia incurs enormous costs to maintain its army, must offer high salaries to soldiers, and sustains social transfers for the families of the fallen. On the other hand, sanctions and economic disruptions are depleting the country's budget, Korowaj continues.

The analyst emphasizes that Russia nonetheless needs time to decelerate its war machine. - The social energy, even hatred generated during the war, must be channelled somehow. If the army is told "stop fighting, stay in the trenches," it risks a rapid increase in anti-government sentiments. The Kremlin still recalls the rage and the march of the Wagner Group towards Moscow, he further states.

Let us recall that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in his New Year's speech, mentioned the new U.S. President Donald Trump. He said there is no doubt that the new administration will succeed in bringing peace, ending Russian aggression.

- He said in those numerous and diverse talks, there was always unity: Putin cannot win, Ukraine cannot lose. The Ukrainian leader plans to attend Trump's inauguration event.

Lt. Col. (ret.) Korowaj predicts that the Kremlin plans to create a new political party that could manage public discontent caused by the economic situation in Russia in a controlled manner. According to Korowaj, the "thaw" party could signal the West of a potential opening of Russia for dialogue, although, in reality, it will be a tool for maintaining Vladimir Putin's authoritarian rule.

The analyst believes that Russia is preparing for systematic personnel changes at the highest levels of power. Tensions between old and younger generals are clearly visible in the military structures, which may influence future command decisions.

Maciej Korowaj published an extensive text about key events surrounding Russia on the X portal. He based it on the analysis of texts by Russian political scientists and military experts. In his view, peace scenarios include maintaining the majority of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions by Ukraine while Russia strives for the gradual lifting of economic sanctions.

The analyst predicts that a potential U.S. failure in negotiations with Russia will spark conflicts in other world regions. China is openly asserting its claims to Taiwan, suggesting a similar "special military operation" to Russia's.