Trump's push for NATO spending: Allies face new demands
Even before being sworn in, Donald Trump harshly criticized European NATO countries. He also changed his stance on ending the conflict in Ukraine, suggesting he could achieve it within half a year, not in 24 hours as he previously claimed. "Trump is trying to pressure allies and make a significant entrance to the White House," comments Gen. Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau.
During a Tuesday press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, Donald Trump devoted considerable time to the war in Ukraine and the North Atlantic Alliance. He recalled his words from his first presidency, suggesting that instead of the required 2% of GDP defence spending, Alliance countries should allocate 5%. Asked if he would push for raising defence spending to this level, Trump answered affirmatively.
"You can't do it with 2%"
"Well, I think NATO should have 5%. You can't do it with 2%. If you have a country with a regular military, you should spend 4%, but if you're in a dangerous zone - they can all afford it - it should be at 5%," Trump said.
According to his suggestion, the United States wouldn't protect countries failing to meet these requirements. During Donald Trump's first term, defence spending in NATO was a major point of contention. The Republican threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the military alliance if partner countries failed to invest at least 2% of GDP in defence.
Gen. Koziej: pressure could yield better results
"Trump did not succeed very well then. Although some countries, including Poland, began to take the issue seriously. Now Trump’s pressure on European allies may yield much better results. It's all due to the war in Ukraine and the threat from Russia. It's Putin who forces Europe to make such decisions," says Gen. Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau.
In his opinion, NATO will not make a decision in line with Trump's recommendations at the upcoming summit. "But since Americans have long expected European allies to contribute more to defence, aiming towards 5% is more realistic," Gen. Koziej believes.
In a similar tone, Marcus Faber, chairman of the defence committee in the Bundestag from the liberal FDP, spoke on Wednesday. He believes that 5% is too much, but - in his opinion - 32 NATO countries will need to agree on a new, collective minimum exceeding the 2% goal. Former defence committee chair and MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann commented more harshly on Trump's statement. - We shouldn't go crazy over every statement from Trump. We're not at a market - said the FDP politician in an interview with RND.
And what does this mean for Poland? Let's recall that currently, no NATO country spends 5% of GDP on defence, while Poland is closest to this threshold, planning to spend 4.7% this year.
"Poland shouldn't make enemies in Europe"
According to Gen. Koziej, Poland must approach all security policy issues, as well as Trump's politics, realistically. "It poses both opportunities and risks for us. We must be able to seize opportunities and reduce risks. Pressuring other European allies to increase defence spending can be our chance. Poland should support the U.S. president in this matter rationally and prudently. So as not to make enemies in Europe," comments the former head of the National Security Bureau.
In his view, risks lie in dividing European allies into better and worse.
- At first glance, dividing into Eastern Europe, which Trump would support, and Western Europe, which he wouldn’t, might seem appealing to us. A divided Europe is a weaker Europe. With such division, we would rely on just one source of support for our security, solely the U.S. We can't afford that," assesses the former military official.
But the controversies surrounding Trump's words don't end there. As he emphasized, he would like to meet with Vladimir Putin as soon as possible and expressed frustration that he cannot do this before the start of his second presidency.
He added that he hopes to bring an end to the war "long before half a year elapses," thus rendering his campaign declaration that he would do it within 24 hours of being sworn in outdated.
According to Gen. Koziej, those words were an introduction to how Trump's presidency would look. "He wanted to signal that he would be tough and relentless. But also unpredictable. It was meant to show allies and opponents that they would have to take him into account unconditionally," evaluates Gen. Koziej.
And as he emphasizes, ending the war within a day was unrealistic from the start. "It was treated as a metaphor for the determination to quickly end the conflict. Now Trump is beginning to realistically evaluate the prospects for any possibility of talks or negotiations. This shows his evolution from a candidate in the elections and campaign winner to a real President of the United States," comments the former head of the National Security Bureau.
In his view, in the attempt to end the war, if he proves to be a strong and tough leader, he will force this on both Ukraine and Russia.
"If it involves enforcing peace on equal terms, it will benefit Poland. For us, it is crucial that it doesn’t happen at the expense of Ukraine. And there is such a risk. We see Trump’s desire to end the conflict quickly, which may mean forcing concessions from Kyiv. This would be very dangerous for us. Forcing Ukraine to capitulate could mean Russian troops might soon appear on our eastern border," concludes Gen. Stanisław Koziej.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz
