Trump's mass deportation plan could cost U.S. economy trillions
According to Donald Trump, Americans gave him an "unprecedented and powerful mandate" to fulfill what he promised during the campaign. One of these "promises"—mass deportations—has unsettled part of society. Experts warn that fulfilling it would significantly impact the American economy.
There is no indication that Donald Trump—president-elect since last week—intends to withdraw from plans to deport up to a million immigrants who entered the USA after illegally crossing the border.
The crisis in the southern USA and large-scale deportation were the main topics that Donald Trump frequently addressed throughout the campaign. Republicans accused immigrants without legal status of various issues, including causing a housing market crisis and a supposed increase in crime.
We will "throw them out of our country" as quickly as possible
Trump's campaign targeted at this group was relentless, culminating in words he spoke during the presidential debate with Kamala Harris—about migrants from Haiti reportedly eating dogs and cats in Springfield, Ohio. The matter was quickly verified and found to be fabricated and built on social media posts. However, Trump and his vice-president continued to support this conspiracy theory until the end of the campaign.
On day one, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to get the criminals out.I will rescue Aurora and every town that has been invaded and conquered. We will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail or kick them out of our country - Trump said at a rally held at the end of October at Madison Square Garden in New York.
A blow to the construction and agriculture industries
Experts have long warned that blind mass deportation of migrants—besides the obvious ethical implications (family separations, possible mistakes) - will also bring consequences that could seriously hurt the American economy. They warn that it would be an enormous blow to the construction and agriculture sectors, which have relied on labour from migrants without legal status for years. They believe it will not improve the housing market situation either, as the issues with home and apartment prices in the USA are much more complicated and cannot be resolved simply by removing migrants from the country.
According to estimates from the American Immigration Council, which deals with immigration policy, if Trump fulfills his promises of mass deportations, the GDP of the United States could shrink by as much as $1.1 (CAD 1.5) trillion. The cost of deporting on the scale envisioned by the Republican could reach $315 (CAD 440) billion.
Will it start in January? Many unknowns
Let's return to the "promise" from the campaign, which—as Trump recently confirmed—he intends to start fulfilling from day one. Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th president of the USA will take place on January 20th. It is still unknown whom exactly the deportations will affect, who will manage them, or how much they will cost the state budget. The Republican did not reveal details of this "great plan" during his campaign. Now—a few days after the election—the first voices on this topic are emerging from his circle.
According to Reuters, citing six people from Trump's circle, he wants to mobilize government agencies. They are supposed to help him deport a record number of immigrants. The Republican plans to utilize all available resources and pressure the so-called "sanctuaries"—adds the agency. This is how some refer to cities where undocumented migrants (those without legal status) have so far felt relatively safe.
A million or millions? Fear of chaos
Let's note here: deportations of immigrants who entered the USA after illegally crossing the border were carried out during the presidency of Barack Obama, the first term of Donald Trump, and the presidency of Joe Biden. So why does Trump's plan provoke opposition and great fears?
Firstly, it is the term "massive" that raises concerns. The future Vice President of the USA, J.D. Vance, mentioned about a million immigrants. Trump himself, however, threw around various numbers and also mentioned millions. Experts and democratic politicians fear that—in an effort to demonstrate effectiveness—the Trump administration will start a chaotic, ill-conceived procedure conducive to mistakes and cruel decisions, resulting in the separation of families. On a massive scale.
The second issue is the scope of actions against immigrants planned by Trump and his administration. Deportations of people without legal status are not supposed to be the end.
American media remind us that Trump also announced the abolition of temporary protection status, which allows workers from selected countries to come to work in the USA. The Republican has for years advocated for the abolition of the law concerning children of those without legal status in the USA. Today—if they are born on US territory—they are considered American citizens.
"President-elect Trump’s transition team is considering ending two Biden admin. programs that have allowed more than 1.3 million immigrants to enter the U.S. legally," NBC News reported on Saturday. This means that those who entered the United States but have not yet received asylum will qualify for deportation. And here comes a key issue.
Americans have long been struggling with a crisis at the southern border, and the system to which immigrants are entering—whether seeking refuge from persecution, fleeing crime, or simply looking for work and a better place to live—is inefficient. People wait for years for a court decision granting them legal status. Sometimes the process takes a decade. During this time, they work—often in the aforementioned sectors: construction and agriculture—and start families.
Canada "prepares for those fleeing raids"
Meanwhile, Trump in his campaign suggested that the mass deportation action would be quick, wide-ranging, and ruthless. He announced organizing raids and transferring migrants to detention camps. "Concern over the effect of Trump’s immigration policy reached Canada, where officials have stepped up border security in preparation for an increase of immigrants fleeing anticipated round-ups and deportations," British "The Guardian" wrote a few days ago.
We tell people that this is kind of like having a plan for a fire: You don't know if a fire is gonna happen, you can't predict when a fire’s happening, but you have a plan on how to exit - Cesar Espinosa, director of FIEL (Familias Inmigrantes y Estudiantes en la Lucha), an organization supporting immigrant families in the USA, commented on the mass deportation announcements in "The Texas Tribune."
FIEL operates in Houston, Texas, where—as stressed by "The Texas Tribune"—half a million people without legal status reside.
The most likely scenario is that the Trump administration will start with those deportations that—probably—will not cause a stir. According to NBC News, priority will be given to migrants who pose the greatest risk: Chinese of military age who came to the USA by illegally crossing the border; convicted criminals who are in the USA unlawfully and immigrants with deportation orders that have already been finalized.
How far the Republican politician, voted for by nearly 75 million Americans, will go is unknown. Public opinion polls (Edison Research survey) indicate that 39% of USA voters support deporting most of the immigrants residing in the country illegally. But 56% believe they should be allowed to apply for legal status.
