Syria's uncertain future under Abu Muhammad al‑Jaulani
The Assad regime has fallen. Who is Syria's new leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and in what direction will the country go under his leadership? According to Paweł Rakowski, an expert on the Middle East, a significant challenge for the region is the sentiments among its fighters, who prioritize continuing jihad over governing the state.
On Sunday, Syrian rebels announced that they had taken control of the country. Two organizations led the charge: HTS, an Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani, and the Syrian National Army. There are suggestions that Turkey helped coordinate the rebels' offensive and gave it the green light, though Turkish authorities officially deny involvement.
The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which captured Damascus on Sunday and toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime, is currently the strongest military faction of the Syrian opposition. On November 27, HTS launched a large-scale offensive against government forces. In the first week of fighting, the organization captured most of Aleppo and expanded its sphere of influence in the north.
Who is al-Jaulani?
Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani is the leader of HTS. Previously associated with al-Qaeda, he now distances himself from radicalism, declaring a departure from jihadism and respect for minority rights. Despite this, HTS is still designated as a terrorist group by the US, EU, and Turkey.
Abu Muhammad al-Jaulani is a well-known figure in the Middle East and Syria. His past, however, does not inspire optimism. In the early 21st century, he fought with al-Qaeda in Iraq as a young man, was imprisoned by the Americans, and upon release returned to Syria. When the war began, he was a leading Islamist who transformed the conflict from a secular and civic rebellion into a jihad - says Paweł Rakowski, a Middle East expert, to Wirtualna Polska.
Rakowski further recalls that al-Jaulani founded the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, responsible for many crimes in Syria, including the occupation of Maaloula, a Christian town near Damascus. He notes that "al-Jaulani's career was linked with the Islamic State. Conflicts led to his split from ISIS, and he subsequently eliminated some of his companions within his faction. From around 2017, he was active in northern Syria, which was heavily influenced by Turkish interests."
According to Paweł Rakowski, the essence of the civil war in Syria was the absence of a unifying leader for 13 years.
During the war that has been ongoing since 2011, there were about 120 different militias or organizations, leading to chaos. This was advantageous for Assad, who didn’t have any partners for negotiations. Al-Jaulani is a man with an unclear background, officially – a highly educated man and a Syrian. His name suggests his family originated from the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, causing about 100,000 Syrians to flee. He was likely born in Saudi Arabia, where his father worked and accrued wealth, and later spent a decade in one of Damascus’s better districts. These facts are significant for Syrians, emphasizing the importance of a leader connected to Syria - claims the Middle East expert in an interview.
On Friday, before Assad's escape, Jaulani was interviewed by CNN, which, as the station notes, took place in broad daylight with minimal security. He stated that the Syrian rebel coalition’s goal is to ultimately topple President Bashar al-Assad, and spoke of plans to establish a government based on institutions and a "council chosen by the people."
On Sunday, al-Jaulani announced that during the transition period, Syrian state institutions would be overseen by former Prime Minister Muhammad Gazi al-Jalali until they are officially transferred to the new authority. Reuters suggests this indicates a desire for an orderly transition following the rebels' announcement of Assad's regime's end.
According to Paweł Rakowski, al-Jaulani presents himself as entering Syria without external ties.
- He is still perceived by the US as a terrorist, with a $10 million reward for his head. However, his recent interview with CNN was significant and symbolic. When the rebel offensive began, the Middle East was still backing Assad, but gradually shifted towards al-Jaulani. Following the fall of Aleppo and al-Assad's diminishing power, the Americans seemed to signal their support for him through the CNN interview - evaluates Paweł Rakowski.
Rakowski also highlights the timing, noting the rebel offensive in Syria began just hours after Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah.
This suggests a lack of coincidence, the expert emphasizes.
Rakowski points out potential challenges regarding HTS governance.
From my perspective, observing radical Islam, I have significant concerns about HTS and al-Jaulani. HTS is not solely a Syrian component, and this poses a considerable problem. Unlike Hamas, which has tight leadership and discipline, HTS is an alliance of approximately 27 militias, groups, or factions under the nominal authority of al-Jaulani. This means HTS could collapse at any moment, Rakowski cautions.
He references images from Sunday, which contrast with al-Jaulani’s measured speech.
Already, his organization’s "soldiers" began threatening Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is dangerous. If al-Jaulani wants to implement some form of governance, his fighters’ sentiments are not towards state governance but towards continuing jihad, or holy war, which poses a significant problem for the region. The international reaction indicates a lack of trust in the rebels. Rather than becoming a constructive Islamic party like Hezbollah, HTS might face chaos, leading Syria to risk becoming a second Somalia, engulfed in endless civil war, concludes the Middle East expert.
