Syria's new dawn: Assad toppled, regional powers shake
During the night from Saturday to Sunday, the Assad regime in Syria fell. It took just 11 days of the offensive for the hereditary dictatorship, which had ruled the country brutally for 54 years, to collapse. In the coming days and months, the balance of power in the Middle East is expected to be reshaped. The Russians and Iranians have been dealt a blow. The Israelis, not waiting for developments, entered Syria.
In a symbolic gesture of taking over power, on Sunday morning, the rebels escorted Syria's Prime Minister Mohammad Jalali out of the office in Damascus. At the same time, public television broadcast a statement from the rebels about the fall of the regime and the creation of a new, united Syria respecting ethnic and religious diversity.
Just two weeks ago, it seemed that Bashar al-Assad had won the civil war thanks to the support of Iran and Russia. However, a fierce offensive by rebels trained by Turkey over the years from the country's northwestern border broke the regime. First, Aleppo fell, which was already shocking in itself. Then the cities of Hama and Homs fell, effectively cutting off Damascus from the coastal provinces where Russian bases are located and blocking the route for the transfer of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Subsequent events unfolded rapidly. The city of Daraa in the south, where the civil war began on March 18, 2011, rose again. The rebels quickly moved north, eventually capturing Damascus.
Rebels armed and trained by Americans in the al-Tanf enclave near the Jordanian border also began their advance. Their goal was Palmyra and the weapons depots located there. In this way, the rebels outpaced the resurging militias of the so-called Islamic State, which emerged in the central Syrian desert and also coveted weapons and ammunition from Palmyra.
Meanwhile, Kurds from the eastern border took control of the Abu Kamal border crossing on the border with Iraq and the city of Deir ez-Zor, practically cutting off Iran from Damascus and Beirut. In the north, rebel forces supported by Turkey that broke the regime's army were pushing south, in part also displacing the Kurds. Contrary to forecasts, the regime's enclave in the coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus did not hold. In both cities, statues of the Assads were toppled in the morning.
The defeat of Russia is a fact
The fate of the dictator is unclear. It was already rumoured that his family fled to Russia, and Bashar himself was said to have sheltered at a Russian airbase. Whether and where he left the country was unknown at the time of writing this article. What is clear, however, is that Russia's position is also shaky. Engaged in Ukraine, Moscow could not support the weakened regime as it did in September 2015, when Russian bombers saved Assad and brutally crushed the rebellion in subsequent years in different cities. The militias defending them surrendered under the condition of relocation to the northwestern Idlib province, from which they now struck a blow.
The Russians are losing the port of Latakia and the Hmeimim base. They may also no longer be able to use the naval base in Tartus. This will complicate Moscow's cooperation with valuable economic allies in Libya and partners in African countries. Iran is also a loser here, having lost its most important allies built with great effort over the years in a matter of months.
Israel triumphs
Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, which will find it very difficult to rebuild its forces without a land connection with Iran. After defeating Hamas in Gaza, crushing Hezbollah, and the fall of Assad, Israelis are even talking about breaking the "ring of fire" built around them by Iran.
From the Jerusalem government's perspective, what is happening is an opportunity to oust Iran, but it also poses a risk related to the takeover of power by Islamists linked to al-Qaeda, even if their leader, Mohamed al-Golani, talks about respecting minorities.
Fearing war at the border with the Golan Heights annexed by them in 1981, Israelis entered the UN theoretically controlled buffer zone in the Syrian part of the Golan. This violates the conditions of the ceasefire following the Yom Kippur War in 1973, but Israelis want to secure themselves as much as possible. They are worried about the chemical weapons now falling into the hands of the rebels. Hence the recent airstrikes on these weapons depots near Damascus and the possibility of continuing such airstrikes.
Assad has fallen. What next?
The fall of Assad raises hopes comparable to the Arab Spring of 2010, which resulted in the Syrian civil war. It is still too early to predict its end.
Syria is a devastated country, where approximately 600,000 people have died or been murdered, and half of its over 20 million citizens have become refugees abroad or internally displaced. The only group that emerges from the civil war relatively unscathed are the Druze, fortified on their highland in the south of the country.
The Christians, who largely cooperated with the regime, fear for their future despite Golani's assurances. The so-called Islamic State is even rearing its head, and the Kurds continue to fight for their rights, irritating Turkey. Neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Israel, Iran, and also Gulf states are playing their interests here, just like Russia and the USA.
It is still unclear what the policy of the second Trump administration will look like, what the Iranians and Russians will do, not to mention the countless nebula of militias, organizations, and communities fighting each other for a decade. Without peace and security, there will be no talk of rebuilding Syria, which will also require a great effort from the international community. Therefore, today one can only rejoice at the fall of the bloody regime, which gives a glimmer of hope for a good future, the realization of which remains a great unknown.
