Syrian rebels advance: Assad's regime under siege

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime seems closer than ever before, according to foreign media reports. For over a week, rebels have been battling Syrian president's forces from two directions — both from the north and the south — as they approach Damascus, the country's capital.

Syrian rebels declared on Saturday that they have taken control of the town of Al-Quneitra in southwestern Syria near the border with Israel and the town of As-Sanamayn, about 20 kilometres south of Damascus.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), controlling the northwest, is fighting not only government forces but also the Western-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control the northeast of the country. Southern factions differ from northern ones, led by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has already seized two large cities during the ongoing offensive. However, they all have a common goal: to overthrow the dictator.

"Our forces have liberated the last village on the outskirts of the city of Homs and are now on its walls," stated the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on social media. It's the main force of the rebel campaign, which in a rapid offensive has already captured, among others, the country's second-largest city, Aleppo, and Hama, with a population of around 500,000.

Located in a strategic position, Homs is the third-largest city in Syria. Its capture by rebels would cut Damascus off from the coast, a bastion of the Alawite religious group, which Assad is part of. The coast is also home to Russian bases. Russia supports the regime in Damascus.

CNN reported that on Friday evening, Syrian opposition forces also took control of the city of Daraa in the southwest. This is the place where the Syrian uprising began in 2011.

The ongoing battles are the most severe clashes in Syria since 2020 when the front lines were "frozen" in the decade-long civil war. It should be noted that during this time, President Assad's regime managed to regain control over most of the country, largely due to support from Russia and Iran.

The weakness of Assad's forces can be partly attributed to the absence of Hezbollah, devastated by the recent war in Lebanon, and the reduction of Russian fighters, redeployed to Ukraine, analyzes Christopher Phillips, an expert from Chatham House.

According to him, Assad's position ends up being weaker than assumed. Four years after a ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia, Syrians under Assad's control received no guarantees of peace. The regime remained repressive towards them, while the economy was crippled by war-related destruction and sanctions.

According to Phillips, rampant corruption led to the seizure of the remaining spoils by Assad's allies, Russia, and Iran, while Ankara's patience with Assad has run out, as evidenced by concurrent attacks by Turkish-backed Syrian militia, the Syrian National Army, north and east of Aleppo.

All of this, according to Phillips, could lead to the fall of Assad's regime. A coup cannot be ruled out either. There have been suggestions that Russia and Iran may want to replace Assad to strengthen their interests in the region, which doesn’t mean that the Syrian president is not in constant contact with Moscow and Tehran.

PAP reported that the United States issued a call on Friday for its citizens to immediately leave Syria.

"The Department of State urges U.S. citizens to depart Syria now while commercial options remain available in Damascus," announced American authorities in a statement published on social media.

Islamist rebels from the organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and their allies began their campaign against Bashar al-Assad's regime's forces on November 27th.