Russia's waning influence: The downfall of Assad's regime
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria will likely deprive Russia of its only overseas naval base and other military assets, into which the Kremlin may have invested hundreds of billions of rubles over the past nine years, reports The Moscow Times.
The complete withdrawal of Russia from Syria, including the loss of the Tartus port and the Khmeimim airbase, seems likely, according to The Moscow Times, which was informed by two Russian diplomats. The Russian military contingent, which at the peak of the campaign to support Assad numbered tens of thousands of soldiers, was cut off at their stationed locations after opposition forces took full control of the territories where Tartus and Khmeimim are located.
Russia informed all major regional players — Syria’s opposition, Ankara, Israel, Washington and London — via diplomatic and military channels that it "will use significant military effort, including aviation and missiles, if anything happens to its military personnel in Tartus and Khmeimim," said a Russian diplomat.
However, the success of this diplomacy is not guaranteed.
“This will impact Russia's logistics for supplying its forces in Africa and all ambitions related to its presence in the region. Everything could fall apart. Alternatives might be sought, for example, in Algeria, but everything will become much more complicated,” noted Alexander Gabuev, director of the Russia-Eurasia Center at the Carnegie Foundation in Berlin.
The Assad regime and the opportunities it offered Moscow in exchange for support were "a very important trump card, which we now lack," said a source close to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
He also noted that the situation is "primarily a defeat for Iran, since Tehran invested more in Syria and lost more there."
The loss of bases in Syria reduces Russia's influence both in the Middle East and the West, according to Boris Bondarev, a former employee of the Russian mission at the UN in Geneva, who left his job in protest against the invasion of Ukraine. “Since 2014, Putin has used [Syria] as a platform to make Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, Egypt and Israel, and naturally, Western European countries and the U.S., reckon with him,” he added.
Assad regime fell. Russia's failure
Two current officials with military and diplomatic experience deny the dramatic situation. One stated that Assad and Syria had become "a suitcase without a handle" for Putin, and the other noted that funds allocated for their maintenance have now been redirected to the campaign in Ukraine.
“Additional squadrons of Russian aviation will now be redeployed to work on Ukrainian targets with peace of mind,” he explained.
It all collapsed like a house of cards
The flight of Assad, who became the sixth foreign dictator to seek refuge in Russia after his regime's collapse, poses an image problem for the Kremlin.
“The demonstration that Russia does not abandon its own, unlike [U.S. President Barack] Obama — that Putin can draw red lines and is ready to speak from a position of strength, intervening in relatively distant regions and achieving his goals with toughness — all of this has crumbled like a house of cards ,” emphasized Gabuev.
