Russia's staggering losses strain military sustainability
The Institute for the Study of War has estimated that in the war in Ukraine, the Russians have lost around 200 tanks, over 650 armoured vehicles, and have already suffered approximately 80,000 casualties. They have only occupied about 1,500 square kilometres during the intensified offensive in September and October.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) summarized the losses of the Russians in the war in Ukraine. The toll is dire.
The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists, write ISW experts.
The experts indicate that the mood in the Russian military community is deteriorating due to treating soldiers like "cannon fodder" and ineffective command tactics.
The need for labour and soldiers on the front
In their assessment, even forced mobilization would not solve Putin's main problem of finding the correct number of people to work in industrial enterprises while simultaneously replenishing the front.
According to analysts from the American think tank, since October 2023, Russian forces have lost at least five divisions of armoured vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region in the Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.
They point out the dwindling stockpiles of tanks and armoured vehicles. They indicate that the current production rate of these vehicles is too low, which will likely make these losses excessive in the long term.
Significant shortage of soldiers
ISW also sees signs indicating that the Russian military is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit enough soldiers to replace the losses on the front. Experts remind that during his speech on September 7, Vladimir Putin confirmed the ongoing shortage of military personnel. They emphasize that Russia is forcing migrants to join the army.
According to ISW, the Russian forces have lost:
- almost 200 tanks,
- over 650 armoured vehicles,
- suffered about 80,000 casualties.
"Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains," summarizes the American centre.
