Russia's looming assault on Zaporizhzhia raises stakes in war
Russia is preparing for a "bold" attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is located about 30 kilometres from the front line, reports The Economist, citing Ukrainian intelligence officials. The exact start date of the operation is unknown, but there are suspicions that the Russian army may involve up to 130,000 soldiers.
Taking over Zaporizhzhia is crucial for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In September 2022, he announced the annexation of the entire Zaporizhzhia region, although at that time, the Russian army controlled only a third of the region, notes The Economist.
Strategic importance for Ukraine
At the same time, Zaporizhzhia is strategically important for Ukraine. It is one of the country's three remaining heavy industry centres, which is critically important for Ukraine's survival as a state.
Before the possible offensive on Zaporizhzhia, Russia is conducting massive bombardments. In the last two months, Russian missiles and glide bombs have destroyed 1,500 buildings in Zaporizhzhia. The front line has also become more active, and explosions are constantly heard there.
However, some Ukrainian military officials believe that Russia is currently not ready for an offensive near Zaporizhzhia.
"The first attack will be the heaviest"
- In the first phase of the city's assault, two divisions (20,000–30,000 soldiers) were planned to be involved. Still, half of them had to be sent to Kursk to try to push the Ukrainian army from occupied positions, says Colonel Oleksiy Hiltchenko.
The commander of the 118th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces codenamed "Lemberg," emphasized that they were not ready for the attack yet, but when they were, the first attack would be the heaviest.
According to The Economist, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are building defensive lines around Zaporizhzhia to prepare for the upcoming Russian army offensive. These lines include minefields and engineering barriers made of concrete and iron.
Russians are advancing
Meanwhile, the Russian army continues its offensive in the Donetsk region. At the beginning of November, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, noted that this is one of the strongest offensives since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.
According to data from the OSINT project WarMapper, in October, Russian troops captured 540 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, which is a record since March 2022. Furthermore, during the counterattack, Russia regained over 40% of the areas previously occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, reported a source in the Ukrainian General Staff.
