Russia's Baltic threat: NATO faces critical two‑year window
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service warns that Russia may be ready for a regional war in the Baltic Sea region within two years. The situation around the area is tense, partly due to numerous underwater incidents. "There must be an acceleration. If it doesn't happen, the risk will increase," says NATO's defence capabilities expert Jakub Palowski in an interview with "Fakt."
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service published a report predicting that Russia could rebuild its military forces within two years if the conflict in Ukraine ends or is frozen. The first scenario assumes that it would only take six months for Russia to attack a NATO country in the absence of U.S. involvement.
Within two years, Putin and his regime are expected to pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries, which would mean a regional war with several countries at once. In the perspective of five years, the Kremlin would be ready for a large conflict in Europe.
Russia a threat to NATO. Experts speak up
"Fakt" asked experts how they see the issue of the Russian threat. Jakub Palowski from Defence24.pl emphasizes that Russia may try to break NATO's cohesion. "The two-year perspective seems to be an important factor in taking actions to break NATO's cohesion," he said in an interview with "Fakt." He highlights the need for dynamic development of NATO's defence capabilities.
This is not directly stated, but it follows from the entire content of the report. There must be some kind of acceleration on NATO's side, on the allied side. If it doesn't happen, the risk will increase - Palowski points out.
Commander Max Dura has a different opinion. He believes that rebuilding Russian forces at such a pace is impossible, especially since Russia is still involved in Ukraine.
They need about 7-10 years to regain what they had on February 24, 2022. In my opinion, it's not possible earlier - the expert stated. - A war that ends with the permanent occupation of some territory is rather impossible in such a time frame. But that's just my opinion - says Commander Dura.
The "Fakt" interviewee points out that Russia produces a maximum of 300 tanks per year, which is insufficient in the face of losses suffered in Ukraine. - They produce a maximum of 300 per year, they lose that many in one month - he emphasizes.
The Danish intelligence report and expert opinions show different perspectives on the potential threat from Russia. They indicate the need to enhance NATO's defence capabilities to counteract potential threats in the Baltic Sea region.
