Russia's ambitious bid to revive its ailing space program
For many decades, Russia was a world leader in space exploration. However, by the second decade of the 21st century, little remained of its former dominance in the field, and Russia's position in the global space services market has been weakening every year. In this context, Roscosmos has announced a plan to move forward—it intends to build a Russian space station independently.
The list of Russian achievements in space is impressive: the first artificial Earth satellite, the first human in space, the first images of the dark side of the moon, landings on the Moon and Venus, spacewalks, and the construction of the first orbital station, Salyut/Zarya.
These successes showcase the power, vision, and efficiency of the Russian space program. Even the Buran shuttle program from the 1980s—despite leading to only one unmanned flight—highlighted Russian potential and the ability to compete with the United States and other spacefaring nations.
Today, in the third decade of the 21st century, the Russian space program is a shadow of its former self. Where once there were a series of triumphs, there are now frequent setbacks. What were once routine operations, like simple orbital flights, have become rare achievements, and the equipment, despite updates, is increasingly outdated compared to global leaders.
Globally, competition is also heating up in terms of reducing costs. Companies like SpaceX routinely use reusable launch modules, and others are developing similar solutions. Meanwhile, Russia still treats its valuable rockets as disposable equipment, as it did during the USSR era, making it less competitive on pricing.
The future of the Russian space program
The new Angara family of launch vehicles could be a light at the end of the tunnel, potentially allowing for optimal selection of lifting capacities ranging from about 3,800 kg to over 24,000 kg. However, the Angara program has faced delays and, despite a few successful launches, remains technically uncertain. Moreover, the "new" Russian rockets, similar to the European Ariane 6 expected to debut in mid-2024, were conceptually outdated from the start.
In addition, a true revolution awaits the Russian space program with the phase-out of Soyuz/Progress spaceships (manned and unmanned versions, respectively). These have been in development and improvement since the 1960s.
The long period of development has allowed for thorough testing and improvements, making the Soyuz/Progress tandem synonymous with reliability. However, the modernization potential of this vintage design is limited, and plans originally set for 2024 indicate that Soyuz will be replaced by the new 6-person Oryol spacecraft. This craft is intended for missions to Earth's orbit and, in the future, to the Moon and Mars.
Russia's space setbacks
However, the Oryol design is fraught with significant risks, which—akin to the American Starliner—might cause considerable delays for related projects.
These challenges come during a period marked by unsuccessful missions and failures for Roscosmos. Explosions of Proton-M rockets a decade ago, issues with Angara launches, failures of military satellite missions such as Cosmos-2555 and Cosmos-2560, and the Luna-25 probe disaster have all contributed to illustrating the difficulties faced by Russia's space industry.
This is underscored by the fact that, in 2023, Russia managed only 19 successful launches, while China completed 66, and the United States achieved 110.
New orbital station ROSS
In light of these challenges, mid-2024 brought a bold decision from the head of Roscosmos, Yuriy Borisov. Russia's path forward is to cease international cooperation on the International Space Station and independently establish the Russian Orbital Station ROSS.
The plan is ambitious. By the end of 2027, the NEM module, initially intended for the ISS Scientific and Energy Module, is to be launched into orbit. In 2028, a node module—facilitating additional attachments and expansions—as well as an airlock for docking spacecraft and another modified NEM module are to be added.
At this stage, although small, the space station will offer basic functions such as hosting a crew, docking spacecraft, and further expansion. The station's expansion is expected to continue until 2035.
Ultimately, ROSS is to consist of five additional modules, including a potential commercial module for four space tourists.
Unlike the continuously crewed International Space Station, ROSS will operate automatically for most of the time, with astronauts sent for modernization, maintenance, research, or commercial missions.
Propaganda of success
Does this ambitious—though relatively modest compared to the ISS—plan have a chance of success? In 2024, it can largely be seen as ambitious rhetoric. The future of the Angara rocket family remains uncertain, especially since the "heavy" Angara A5 rockets, which can lift approximately 24,000 kg, will be required to launch the NEM modules.
Will Russia be able to rebuild its position in space? When we set aside propaganda and consider the facts, it seems unlikely. Even an improbable streak of successes with the construction of the space station, the successful deployment of the Oryol spacecraft, and consistent performance of the Angara rockets would still only widen the gap with global competitors.
The USA and China, along with India and Japan—with their reusable spacecraft, expansive infrastructure, and rapidly growing private space sectors testing innovative solutions—are leaving Russia further behind. The legendary days of Gagarin, Tereshkova, Zond, Luna, and Salyut are, regrettably, in the distant past with no clear indication of a return.
