Russian military facing unsustainable losses in Ukraine conflict
The Russian military is experiencing significant losses on the Ukrainian front, jeopardizing its future military operations, writes the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a recent analysis. It states that morale within the Russian military community is declining due to soldiers being treated as "cannon fodder" and ineffective command tactics.
According to the think tank's analysts, since October 2023, Russian forces have lost at least five divisions of armoured vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk region of Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine. While Russian forces have likely gathered a substantial amount of equipment in prioritized areas of the front, the dwindling stocks of tanks and armoured vehicles, along with the currently inadequate production rate of armoured vehicles in Russia, are likely to make these losses unsustainable in the long term.
ISW has noted signs indicating that the Russian military is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit enough soldiers to replace the losses on the front. Experts remind us that during his speech on September 7th, Vladimir Putin acknowledged the ongoing shortage of military personnel. ISW also notes that Russia is coercing migrants to join the military.
"The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists. Even an involuntary reserve mobilization will not resolve the larger problem Putin apparently faces in finding enough people to work in Russia's industries while also feeding the front," writes the think tank.
Russians with an advantage, but at a high cost
According to ISW, Russian forces lost nearly 200 tanks, over 650 armoured vehicles, and suffered about 80,000 casualties while capturing only about 1,500 square kilometres during intensive offensive operations in September and October.
"Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains," concludes the American analytical centre.
Reservists as cannon fodder
Some pro-Russian war bloggers have also noted staffing issues at the front. They complain, for example, that although training lasts at least six months, the Russian military command considers reservists "cannon fodder," whose primary purpose is to attract drone attacks and shelling.
One of the commenting "war correspondents" pointed out that Russian losses are high due to the tactic of sending small assault groups in several waves.
