Russia gears up for major offensive in Donetsk region

- In the Donetsk region, Russia is preparing a massive attack on Ukrainian positions. We are all expecting such an attack. The enemy is gathering soldiers and equipment near the front line. At the same time, they are using the tactic of small group attacks, from two to five people, trying to gain advantageous footholds for an attack - said Danylo Borysenko, head of intelligence for the anti-aircraft rocket-artillery brigade Rubizh, quoted by the Unian agency.

Another Ukrainian soldier added that more medics are being sent to the eastern front due to concerns that the fighting will be intense in the coming weeks.

According to the latest data from the Ukrainian General Staff, the hottest point of clashes is the so-called Kurakhove direction - named after the town of Kurakhove with 18,000 residents. Recently, there have been nearly 40 exchanges of fire within just one day. The Russians are implementing a large-scale plan to encircle Ukrainian forces from the flanks there. They are assaulting their positions from the north, south, and east.

In this way, they aim to straighten the front line between Sontsovka and Shakhtarsk, which could prevent Ukrainians from further defending the western Donbas. At the same time, they are trying to block the supply routes of the defenders of these areas.

"The enemy blew up the dam on the Kurakhove reservoir to flood the area and hinder the movement of heavy military vehicles," reported the Donetsk military administration. Ukrainians, trying to counter the attacks, are sending drones to this place. And it didn't help. The attackers, despite losses, managed to enter Kurakhove.

Kurakhove - importantly - is located in the central part of the Donetsk region, which makes it a significant communication hub. The city is situated near important roads and railways that connect different parts of the Donbas. Control of this city allows Russians easier access to other parts of the region and increases their offensive capabilities in this area.

It is worth adding that Kurakhove is located in a region rich in the coal industry. Although the city itself is not one of the main industrial centres in Donbas, its location near coal mines and other industrial facilities makes its control economically significant. For Ukraine, maintaining access to these resources is important from the perspective of energy production.

However, some experts predict that Ukrainian forces will be forced to retreat from these positions any day now. The village of Kostiantynivka remains the only exit route for Ukrainian soldiers. The troops must withdraw in advance to avoid being trapped in a "cauldron."

Bad news has emerged from another key battle position in the Donetsk region. Recently, the Russians moved 3 kilometres towards the centre of Toretsk (which had a population of 50,000) during an offensive. According to an analysis by German analyst Julian Ropcke, they control about 70 percent of its territory. The capture of Toretsk could give Russians control of the entire region, which would be a gateway to further attacks towards the western and northern areas of the Donetsk region.

The Institute for the Study of War indicates that special units, such as the 56th Specnaz battalion and the "Sparta" battalion, are operating near Toretsk, which suggests a specialized operation.

Russian forces also conducted offensive operations in the Terny, Torske, and Serebrianka areas south of Kreminna. Ukrainian drone attacks and artillery shelling slowed Russian advances in the Terny area. Large military groups, including the 31st, 36th, and 37th mechanized rifle regiments, the 19th tank regiment, and other mechanized and tank units, were active in the Lyman area - totaling around 34,000 to 35,000 soldiers, supported by about 540 tanks, almost 1,000 armoured vehicles, and hundreds of artillery systems and rocket launchers.

The Directorate of Ukrainian Main Intelligence reported that Russia used over 2,000 drones in October alone - half of which were decoy drones intended to mislead Ukrainian air defence systems. These drones are smaller, cheaper to produce, and do not carry explosives, but mimic Iranian Shahed drones on radar.

- Russia wants to show the world, and also President Donald Trump, that it will settle the war on its own terms. It's a last-minute gamble, as a new administration is forming in the United States, we have a new NATO Secretary General, and a political shift is occurring in Germany - commented Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.

- The image of a war of attrition has been astonishing me for some time. Russian propaganda masks huge problems such as dependence on supplies from North Korea and Iran and poor economic data. The Russians themselves are not particularly eager to fight. We also see that Kremlin generals are receiving support from North Korean forces. Meanwhile, all the advantages in a war of attrition are on the side of the West supporting Ukraine - the general calculated.

He believes that Russia played it smart by not moving forces to the Kursk region earlier, where part of Russian territory has been occupied by Ukrainians since August. - It seems that they assumed they would reclaim it later. Now the battle is on in the east to negotiate from a position of strength if talks occur - WP's interlocutor concluded.

Let's recall that according to reports from American media, President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday at 9:00 AM EST. The politician is known for his promise to end the conflict in 24 hours. The "The Washington Post" reported that during the conversation, Trump told the Russian president not to "escalate the war in Ukraine." However, after publication, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied reports of a phone call between Trump and Putin, calling them "pure fiction" and "fake news".

Russian acceleration is visible in other areas. According to ISW, Russian regional authorities are transferring larger portions of their social budgets to payouts for war veterans. This is likely aimed at encouraging citizens to join military service.

Without American support, Ukrainian resistance against Russia "simply will not be able to be sustained" - reported Sky News correspondent Stuart Ramsey, who is in eastern Ukraine.

"Russia is definitely growing stronger. I would say the Ukrainian army is currently experiencing quite significant problems. The morale of the soldiers is always quite high because they know they have to fight and are determined to do so. They, of course, like everyone else here, are watching what has happened in the United States, the election results, and what will happen next," said Ramsey.

In recent days, concerns about a potential Russian ground offensive in the east, particularly in the Donbas region, have increased in Ukraine. According to reports from the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is intensively preparing its forces for increased combat actions in areas such as Donetsk and Luhansk. Although many previous offensive operations in these areas have had limited success, Russia is gathering military equipment and special units there, which may suggest preparations for a larger offensive.

In early November, an intensification of Russian attacks was noted to the northeast of Siversk and in the directions of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Motorized brigades and special units appeared in these areas. Additionally, analyses indicate even greater use of Iranian drones by Russia, which indicates its increasing dependence on external arms supplies.

Analysts suggest that Russia may also be preparing for a potential winter campaign when weather conditions could significantly impact military operations​.