Rising populism in Eastern Germany signals shift towards Russia

Pro-Russian parties in three eastern German states—Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia—are poised to make significant gains in regional elections in September, two of which will be held on Sunday.

The pro-Russian Alternative for Germany (AfD) stands a strong chance of taking first place in all three states. With the recently formed left-wing Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), Moscow gains a chance to regain a strong position in a wide area of the former East Germany, a region it dominated for decades during the Cold War.

"If the forecasts are confirmed in the vote, the results will certainly cause deep concern throughout Germany," it reads. "A huge victory for extremists would both reveal the extent to which the efforts of the German political establishment to bridge the East-West divide have failed, and further destabilize Berlin's already shaky three-way coalition," write the authors.

"The victory would also be a personal triumph for Putin: the Russian leader started as a KGB spy in Dresden in the 1980s, which left him with a lasting fascination with all things German. A biographer once called him 'the German in the Kremlin.'"

Though not all parties are as openly pro-Russian as AfD, they share two narratives pushed by the far right: that NATO shares responsibility for the war in Ukraine and that a peaceful solution would be possible if the West took diplomacy seriously.

The main ruling parties in Germany at the national level—the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP)—have been downgraded to the status of parties with no chance of winning. Polls predict a combined result of around 12 percent in Saxony and Thuringia and 27 percent in Brandenburg. Even with the largest centrist force in Germany, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the combined poll result of the main parties does not exceed 50 percent.

The rapid rise of AfD and other populist parties in the east suggests that such an approach has not worked. According to recent polls, the Greens and the FDP, the smallest of the three parties in the German national coalition, face the possibility of being excluded from all three state parliaments. Parties must win at least five percent of the vote to gain seats.

The fact that even a leading German conservative from the East was willing to bow to Putin underscores the extent to which Russian narratives have taken root in the region. "Even if most Germans in the East harbour no illusions about Putin, the population still needs to overcome decades of anti-Western propaganda. For many, Moscow is no worse than Washington, which populist politicians accuse of acting behind the scenes to advance its own goals in Ukraine," it reads.

Most left-wing politicians in the East are concentrated in BSW and the Left Party, the successor to the former communist party of East Germany, and advocate for peace rather than for Putin.

Critics dismiss such calls from the left as naive. Pressuring the West to end arms supplies while Ukraine is to cease fighting and cede territory ultimately plays into Moscow's hands and legitimizes its invasion of Ukraine, they argue.

The greater threat remains the AfD, which, if the party wins in all three states, would cause a political earthquake whose tremors could extend far beyond Germany's borders. Some argue that such a scenario is more likely after last week's knife attack in Solingen, allegedly carried out by a Syrian with reported ties to the Islamic State.

AfD's links to Moscow are well documented. Before the European elections in June, German authorities revealed an alleged Russian influence operation involving one of AfD's key candidates. Nonetheless, the party came in second with 16 percent and performed particularly well in the East.

Many senior AfD officials openly express sympathy for Putin's authoritarian regime.

source: Politico