Putin's Ukraine obsession leaves Assad's fall unnoticed
The regime of Bashar al-Assad has collapsed in Syria. While the opposition celebrates their victory, Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia. According to the Russian news agency TASS, they have already flown to Moscow. Alexander Baunov, a political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, explains why Putin's focus on Ukraine makes the loss of Syria seem of little consequence to him.
On Sunday, December 8, Syrian rebels announced the capture of Damascus, ending Assad's 24-year rule. This event marks another stage in the ongoing civil war that has been raging since 2011, during which Assad was supported by Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah.
The fall of Assad's regime has ushered in a new phase in the struggle for influence in the region. War-torn Syria has become a battleground for global powers and local factions. With Assad's overthrow, Russia and Iran have lost their influence, triggering a new fight for resources and geopolitical dominance.
The swift fall of the regime in Syria illustrates Vladimir Putin's intense, or perhaps defensive, focus on Ukraine, which transcends rational political norms. For this, he is willing to sacrifice everything, including his own past achievements. Although the Russian leaders strive to portray themselves as cold-blooded realists, the Kremlin's practical politics were long ago overtaken by geopolitics, which have now been supplanted by politics in Ukraine, says Alexander Baunov, as quoted by Meduza.
- Putin is so consumed by Ukraine that the loss of the sole military-political success outside his borders seems to leave him unaffected. The Ukrainian conflict, initially local, has overshadowed everything else and has expanded to global proportions, explains Alexander Baunov.
Putin's associates remain silent, aware that these matters fall within their boss's domain. As a result, the most significant global event involving Russia for an extended period remains uncommented upon. While Iran has shared its interpretation of the events, Russia's silence suggests an impression reminiscent of the day of the Prigozhin revolt, revealing unpreparedness and uncertainty, adds Baunov (Meduza service).
"The stakes in the Ukrainian war are so high that it represents a potential historic victory or defeat for Russia. A victory in Ukraine is framed as a triumph in the global struggle of the world's majority against the elite of the old world: after this will come Syria, Georgia. Now, following Syria's fall, nothing remains but to secure victory. Therefore, fleeing from Syria is unlikely to offer direct relief for Ukraine," argues the political scientist and senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
