Putin's strategy: Crafting the narrative of victory in Ukraine
The administration of President Putin has started shaping the "image of victory" for officials from Russian regions in the war with Ukraine, which they are expected to present to the citizens, as reported by "Kommersant" and "Vedomosti", citing sources.
A newspaper source revealed that the President's Administration anticipates the eventual conclusion of the special operation and is preparing for that scenario. The war's future outcomes are expected to be framed as a victory for Russia, although it is acknowledged that this portrayal is unlikely to appease either "angry patriots" or "liberals."
Preparations to announce the end of the war
The Kremlin, therefore, suggests relying on the "calm majority" who will be satisfied with the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine announced by the Russian president and the takeover of four Ukrainian regions. According to the president's administration, officials must "maintain and expand" this majority, claim "Kommersant" interlocutors.
The Kremlin also instructed regional authorities to cooperate with war participants, including assisting them with employment and rehabilitation. Otherwise, they may join protest movements or the criminal world, as discussed at a seminar in "Senezh".
"Senezh" is a training centre in the Moscow region, known as the "Senezh Management Workshop". It is a place where seminars and workshops for Russian officials, including deputy governors, take place. The aim of these meetings is to improve management skills and discuss current political and administrative issues. This centre plays a significant role in shaping regional policy and communication strategies in Russia.
Putin set the framework for agreement
A concern raised within Putin's administration is that former soldiers might struggle to secure comparable earnings in civilian life as they did during the war. According to a source cited by Kommersant, officials are advised to focus on providing support for these individuals and fostering societal respect for them.
Earlier, sources close to the Kremlin informed Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin set the framework for an agreement on Ukraine to be discussed with the newly elected U.S. President, Donald Trump. According to this information, Putin might agree to withdraw troops from the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions but will insist on maintaining control over the annexed regions. He will also demand that Ukraine renounce its NATO membership.
"To Russians, Putin can present such an agreement as a victory that ensures the protection of Russian-speaking residents of eastern Ukraine and maintains a land bridge to Crimea," noted one of Reuters' interlocutors.
What about the occupied regions of Ukraine?
It is not clear, however, whether Putin will seek full control over the four Ukrainian regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. None of them are completely controlled by the Russian army, and in June of this year, Putin conditioned the start of peace negotiations on the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces from these areas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarded Putin's conditions as another ultimatum and refused to discuss them. At the end of November, Zelensky declared that Kyiv would agree to end the "hot phase" of the war with Russia if Ukraine is admitted to NATO. However, he emphasized that there is no question of giving up the occupied territories: after being invited to the North Atlantic Alliance, Kyiv intends to reclaim them "through diplomatic means".
Meanwhile, Trump announced that he is ready to end the war between Russia and Ukraine immediately after his inauguration on January 20, 2025. At the same time, all proposals from his advisors regarding the end of the conflict boil down to freezing the current front line and halting talks about Ukraine's NATO membership.
