Georgia's turmoil: A potential flashpoint in Kremlin's strategy
The confrontation between the pro-Russian government and the opposition in Georgia could further escalate following declarations by commanders of the "Caucasian Union" fighting on the side of Ukraine, who want to protect the protesters. Meanwhile, Russian war veterans are calling for the use of weapons against government opponents.
The leaders of the "Caucasian Legion" fighting on the side of Ukraine published a video statement on Sunday evening, expressing their desire to "protect the national sovereignty of Georgia and the civilian population in any form against any threat." Lado Gamsakhurdia, the head of the military committee of the "Caucasian Union," stated that soldiers fighting in Ukraine could return to the country and form Georgia's National Guard there. "Georgian unit commanders (...) are waiting for a signal from the president!" he wrote on the X portal.
It turns out that the country's president, Salome Zurabishvili, fears the military's involvement in the protest. In a statement to the media, she warned that such actions would be "against the protest." - I have received several messages that Georgian soldiers from Ukraine allegedly intend to arrive or have arrived at this protest. This is a direct provocation. This is not happening, do not believe it - announced the politician, who is one of the protest leaders.
A political struggle has been ongoing in Georgia for many days. The new Prime Minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, announced that the country will not begin accession talks with the EU until 2028. At the same time, it will not accept any EU funds because - as he stated - "European politicians and bureaucrats use grants and loans as a means of blackmail."
The anti-EU declaration has stirred citizens, as according to surveys, about 80% of Georgians support EU membership. Against this backdrop, massive demonstrations have occurred in Tbilisi and several other cities, which have turned into clashes with the police. Georgia has been a candidate country for EU membership for a year now.
On Monday morning, security forces dispersed the protesters, with people being detained in courtyards and at the entrances to buildings. According to Georgian television stations, more than 40 people were given medical assistance. The number of arrests exceeded 200, including one of the opposition leaders - Zurab Japaridze.
What's next for Georgia? Russian bloggers demand use of weapons
The intervention by Georgian military was supported by Russian war bloggers and veterans of the war in Ukraine. A group called Z-bloggers (from Z, as a symbol of the Russian invasion army) claims that the protests in Tbilisi are organized with "the backing of external forces" and "Western agents," comparing the situation to the Ukrainian Maidan and calling on the authorities to take more decisive action, including the use of weapons.
"The Georgian authorities should issue the strictest possible order to scatter the parasites, otherwise Georgia will face a great war, in which tens of thousands, and possibly hundreds of thousands, of Georgians will die. No matter how cynical it may sound now, one conditional FAB-1500 for a few hundred protesters is an acceptable price (referring to dropping a FAB-type bomb - ed.)," reads a post on the popular blog on Telegram "Veteran's Notes."
Gen. Polko on Georgia: A new phase of the Kremlin's hybrid war
- I believe that events in Georgia are another phase of the hybrid war conducted by Vladimir Putin, aiming to bring politicians with pro-Russian, anti-EU views to power in individual countries - comments Gen. Roman Polko, former commander of the GROM unit, in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.
- Declarations from Russian veterans are extremely dangerous for people. In case of clashes, the victims are usually accidental participants. For now, it is not politically beneficial for the Kremlin to spark bloody incidents, but an extreme scenario cannot be ruled out. Let's hope it doesn't happen - adds Gen. Polko. - Besides, we see that the EU is discussing and fearing the use of nuclear weapons, while the real threat from Russian policy is the entrance of countries like Georgia or Moldova into the Kremlin's orbit - emphasizes the former military official.
They call themselves Georgian Dream: steering the country away from the EU
Considered pro-Russian, the ruling party named "Georgian Dream" won the parliamentary elections in Georgia, which took place at the end of October. The country's president, Salome Zurabishvili, does not recognize their results, did not agree to the parliament's inauguration, and expects new elections to be held. Russia distances itself from suspicions of influencing the change of power. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected the accusations while simultaneously accusing the EU and the USA of trying to trigger a "colour revolution" in Georgia.
"Whether street demonstrations will force the authorities to make concessions will depend on the size of the protests and the determination of their participants, as well as the loyalty of the public administration to the ruling party. Smaller protests can be expected to continue being brutally suppressed. The coming days could prove key for the future of the protests," assesses Wojciech Górecki, a specialist from the Centre for Eastern Studies.
Wojciech Wojtasiewicz from the Polish Institute of International Affairs expects a gradual spontaneous reduction of the protests due to the participants' lack of faith in their success. "The peaceful street protests accompanying the crisis turned out to be less numerous than the opposition had hoped. They will now try to radicalize them, but the chances seem limited," writes the PISM analyst in a commentary on the events in Georgia.
In his view, the victorious Georgian Dream party will not decide to call for new parliamentary elections, but "will complete the closure of the single-party political system through the indirect election of a new president". President Zurabishvili's term ends in mid-December.
