North Korea's covert support: Soldiers bolster Russia in Ukraine

Russia and North Korea are cooperating, and this is not new. In June, Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang to negotiate a security partnership with North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un.

Earlier, there were rumours of extensive North Korean arms supplies, particularly artillery shells. In 2023, Ukrainian special services HUR reported that a limited North Korean military contingent had arrived in occupied territories of Ukraine.

Expert analyses and media reports are shedding more light on the scope of this support. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with arms valued between $1.7 billion and $5.5 billion CAD, primarily artillery ammunition and short-range missiles.

Olena Guseinova from Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul cites this data in her study "Putin's Partners," conducted for the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. The researcher analyzed leaked intelligence reports and documents.

However, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is not only supporting his Russian neighbour with weapons. According to NATO information, there are North Korean soldiers in Russia. They may soon relieve Russian troops in the Kursk region.

In the coming year, as many as 12,000 North Koreans could be fighting on the Russian-Ukrainian front in exchange for urgently needed foreign currency. The Friedrich Naumann Foundation anticipates revenues of several hundred million US dollars.

According to findings, at least part of the soldiers seem to come from special forces and have received Russian uniforms to conceal their identity. A DW fact-checking team confirmed that video footage provided by South Korean intelligence shows scenes in Russia's Eastern Military District. Neither Russia nor North Korea has confirmed these reports.

Currently, there is little concrete information and much-unspecified speculation, says Nico Lange, a senior analyst at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), in an interview with DW. - But there is no doubt that North Koreans are being trained in Russia. There is also no doubt that since Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang, North Korean engineering and construction troops have been active in the occupied territories of Ukraine - he says.

However, Lange cautions that this does not automatically mean that 12,000 North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. - So far, there is no such indication - he observes.

Nevertheless, this is a disturbing development from a Ukrainian perspective. That's why when Vladimir Putin presented himself as a respected host of the BRICS summit in Kazan last week, Kyiv grew increasingly concerned about continued support.

The so-called "victory plan" of President Volodymyr Zelensky has not gained momentum. Ukraine must reckon with the possibility that Donald Trump, who wants to reduce military aid, may win the US presidential election in early November and who recently even partially blamed Zelensky for Russia's invasion of his country.

Zelensky made it clear over the weekend that his partners must respond now. - We cannot allow evil to grow. If the world remains silent now, and if we soon see North Korean soldiers on the front lines as regularly as we repel Shahed drones (kamikaze drones designed by Iranians, ed.), it will not benefit anyone in the world. It will only prolong the war - stressed the Ukrainian president.

The US response is currently considered decisive - after all, Washington is not only the largest support for Ukraine but also the protective power for South Korea. The US was the first NATO member to speak about evidence of North Korean military presence in Russia. Beyond that, however, Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin remained reserved: - What exactly are they doing there? That is yet to be seen. If they plan to take part in this war on Russia's behalf, it is a very, very serious issue - he said in Rome.

However, this problem will likely concern primarily the next US administration under Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. MSC expert Nico Lange believes that Europe will also want to wait for the US elections, which will take place on November 5.

- At the moment, I do not see the main countries in Europe coming together to develop a common strategy. What do we want to achieve in Ukraine? What are we doing against Russia itself and against its supporters? And how will we act together? But that is precisely what is needed - says Lange.

NATO's spokeswoman in Brussels stated that if North Korean troops were designated to fight in Ukraine, it would mean "a significant escalation of North Korea's support for Russia's illegal war and another indicator of Russia's losses at the front." She added that the Alliance is discussing how to proceed further.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a foreign policy expert of the largest German opposition party in the Bundestag - CDU, believes that the lack of Europe's response to the deployment of North Korean troops is a "fatal oversight". He added that a united and decisive reaction of force and deterrence is necessary.

In response to DW's inquiry, Kiesewetter wrote: "Many European countries have wanted this for a long time. Above all, Germany must finally change its position." Kiesewetter reiterated demands to lift restrictions on the range of supplied weapons, to provide Ukraine with additional powerful systems, and to issue an invitation to NATO.

As soon as signs of tightening Russian-North Korean cooperation began to emerge, DW spoke with Andrei Lankov, a professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul.

As he said, Russia can use soldiers from North Korea to avoid mobilization. The war is generally popular in Russia, but only as long as most people are not involved in the fighting and the war does not affect their daily lives, emphasized Lankov. In his opinion, fewer and fewer people in Russia are willing to sacrifice their lives, even for the financial benefits offered by military contracts.

In return, North Korea wants money and technology. - A contract soldier in the Russian army receives $2,700 CAD a month plus a one-time bonus of up to $27,000 CAD. Pyongyang would happily receive at least half this amount for each soldier provided - says Lankov. Modern technology is equally desirable.

- In other circumstances, Russia would never be willing to share technology with such an unstable country, but now it has no other choice.

However, this cooperation will not last, the expert believes. After the end of the war in Ukraine, relations will likely return to the previous level, as North Korea will cease to interest Moscow economically.