North Korea's arms deal boosts Russia amid growing tensions

North Korea is strengthening cooperation with the Russian Federation by sending soldiers and primarily supplying artillery ammunition and rocket missiles. Last year, Kim Jong Un's regime delivered 3 million 152 mm shells and about 500,000 122 mm shells to Putin's army.

Russia has also received KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles. The KN-23 is heavily based on the Russian Iskander system, while the KN-24 is reportedly a local design but shows many similarities to the Tochka-U system commonly used by the Russian army.

Both missile types were tested in 2019, with mass production beginning three years later. The Russians started using them to attack targets in Ukraine in December 2023. Specialists identified remnants of KN-23 and KN-24 based on parts found after the strikes.

Despite clear evidence, Moscow and Pyongyang continue to deny at forums such as the UN that North Korea is arming Russia.

It quickly became clear that the most commonly used KN-23 missile significantly lags behind even Russian products in terms of quality. In early May, reports indicated that the KN-23 has a high failure rate, with about half of the North Korean rockets losing their programmed trajectory and exploding in the air.

Furthermore, the accuracy error accepted by the manufacturer for both missiles is about 90-100 metres, which by modern standards is unacceptable. In contrast, the Russian Iskander boasts a declared accuracy - depending on the version - of 5-30 metres. Similarly, ATACMS missiles have comparable accuracy. Meanwhile, GMLRS-U missiles have accuracy ranging from 1 to 4 metres.

This means North Korean missiles are not suitable for targeting precise points, but only larger surface targets. In terms of accuracy, they are similar to American standards from World War II, when a bombing was considered accurate if the bomb exploded within 100 metres of the target.

The Russians do not seem concerned about this lack of accuracy, as North Korean missiles are mostly used for attacks against civilian targets in Kharkiv, Kherson, or Zaporizhzhia. Most of the missiles manufactured in North Korea have been found in these areas.

Sam Lair, an adjunct at CNS, one of the world's leading research centres focused on weapons of mass destruction prevention issues, observed via satellite images that Pyongyang is expanding the factory in Hamhung where the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles are produced. This plant is the only known facility in North Korea producing solid-fuel ballistic missiles.

The first information emerged in fall 2023 when North Korea's state news agency KCNA reported ongoing construction work at the Ryongsong machine complex, showing Kim Jong Un inspecting the site.

Based on limited information and KCNA reports, it can be concluded that the work involves reconstructing production facilities, as well as assembling and installing equipment in machine workshops and the foundry. U.S. analysts estimate that the complex's expansion will increase ballistic missile production by about 40%.

Previously, it was estimated that North Korea could produce several hundred KN-23 and KN-24 annually. Even with increased production, it's unlikely the Russians will be able to flood Ukraine with Kim Jong Un's missiles.

What is troubling, however, is that the regime continues to invest in expanding its defence industry. This is a primary concern for South Korea and Japan. The funds flowing into Kim's regime, largely from Kremlin investments, allow a significant expansion of military potential. Already, North Korea’s Central Military Commission has reportedly doubled the production of artillery ammunition and military trucks.

The rapprochement between Russia and North Korea, culminating in the recently ratified strategic partnership agreement covering economic and military areas, worries Seoul. It includes a pledge for mutual military aid in case of aggression against either country.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, South Korea has declared it would not supply Kyiv with weapons. In spring 2023, however, it was discovered that South Korean 155 mm shells were being purchased by the U.S. and indirectly ending up in Ukraine. "The Wall Street Journal" was among the first to report this.

Now, Kyiv wants South Korea to sell more than shells. This week, Rustem Umerov, Ukraine's defence minister, discussed this issue with South Korea's President Yoon Seok-yeol.

The Koreans have agreed to exchange intelligence data about Russian military cooperation with North Korea but have refused to sell weapons. According to South Korean SBS television, Kyiv sought to purchase KM-SAM Cheon-gung anti-aircraft missile systems, air defence radar stations, artillery radars, and 155 mm shells.

President Yoon Seok-yeol stated after the meeting that his country may consider providing support "depending on the level of North Korean involvement" on Moscow's side in the war. There was no specification on what new developments might lead to such assistance.

Current support for Ukraine includes humanitarian and financial aid, which is expected to reach 2.3 billion dollars (3.2 billion Canadian dollars) by the end of the year. Additionally, Seoul offers support in rehabilitating Ukrainian soldiers and rebuilding Ukraine's infrastructure after the war.

The Ukrainian minister's visit changed little. According to SBS television, Korean defence giants - Hanwha and Hyundai Rotem - were reportedly instructed by the government to refrain from contacts with Ukraine. The government in Seoul appears to be navigating between public opinion, citizens’ viewpoints, and the international situation.