Moldova's electoral showdown: Russian meddling casts a shadow
Presidential elections will be held in Moldova on October 20. Moldovan authorities are observing intensified Russian hybrid actions before the elections, which are undermining the pro-Western government's policy and portraying the EU in a negative light. A journalistic investigation revealed whom and how the Russians are recruiting.
19 October 2024 12:51
In the Sunday elections, President Maia Sandu, who supports Moldova's integration with the European Union, will be seeking reelection. She has ten rivals. She is the favourite in this election, although experts say a second round is not excluded. The next candidates in terms of support are the former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, backed by socialists, and the moderately pro-Russian Renato Usatii.
Concurrently with the elections, a referendum initiated by Sandu will be held, in which citizens will answer whether Eurointegration should be a strategic goal of the state and included in the constitution.
The authorities speak of an unprecedented scale of election interference, primarily through a massive vote-buying campaign. This is a test for Moldova ahead of next year's parliamentary elections, which are expected to be crucial for the country's future.
People are being paid by Russia
In Moldova, there are people who "look towards Russia" and are susceptible to Russian narratives, but the key threat to fair elections is the illegal money coming into the country from Russia - Moldovan experts tell the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
People are paid to vote against the EU and to demonstrate pro-Russian views. I would call it pragmatic Sovietism - says Andrei Curararu from the Watchdog.md foundation to PAP.
According to police data, in September alone, about 20 million Canadian dollars reached pro-Russian "activists" recruited by the structures of oligarch Ilan Shor. Experts estimate that the total amounts spent on meddling in Moldovan elections could be as much as ten times higher.
- We are not able to determine the exact scale, but it is certainly tens of millions of dollars. And such amounts have not been used in Moldovan politics before, neither legally nor illegally - says Ceban.
Targeting pensioners
Networks of "activists" operate on the internet, on social media platforms. For steady cooperation, one can earn 3,000 lei per month (approximately 200 Canadian dollars), which is equivalent to a monthly pension.
- For elderly people living outside large cities, these are significant amounts, an additional pension in fact. Traditionally, it is the pensioners who are the target of these campaigns. They vote themselves and persuade others. Moreover, they are traditionally a disciplined group of voters - explains Ceban.
The Moldovan newspaper "Ziarul de Garda" recently published the results of its journalistic investigation. A journalist joined a group of activists pursued by Moldovan authorities, led by oligarch Shor. She detailed how recruitment works and how Russian rubles from accounts in Russia - established with fake data - can be illegally transferred to Moldova through "intermediaries."
"Police cannot track all of them"
About 130,000 people are said to be involved in the scheme described by the police. What impact could this have on the elections in Moldova? As Ceban says, with 1.5 million voters, it is enough to exceed the 5 percent electoral threshold in parliamentary elections.
It follows that through such a scheme, one can introduce their own party into parliament - he emphasizes.
- There is no doubt that this type of election interference can affect the election outcome. The methods of influence are so numerous that the police are not able to track all of them - says Andrei Curararu from the Watchdog foundation in an interview with PAP.
