Kremlin's record recruit: 150,000 join, but where will they go?

The Kremlin has announced a success. During the recently concluded spring draft, 150,000 recruits joined the army. Putin promises they will not be sent to the front for at least the first year. However, this is not enough to achieve the set plan.

The draft lasted from April 1 to July 15 and was the largest in eight years. This is unsurprising, as the number of conscripts increased with each draft. For example, in last year's spring draft, 147,000 Russians were recruited. The current record will likely be surpassed soon.

The number of recruits has increased, but the age of conscripts has also risen. In July 2023, Putin raised the upper limit by 3 years—from 27 to 30. However, this only slightly improved the personnel situation because losses mean that the army's numbers are still insufficient, and its demand is expected to increase. This is because the goal is for it to have 1.5 million soldiers.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself, half a million soldiers are involved, and just over 600,000 remain to defend the country. Some garrisons in the Caucasus and the Far East are already stripped of soldiers. Therefore, changes in the age of conscripts were not the only ones. Amendments to the conscription registration regulations in Russia also include a ban on leaving the country for those who receive a draft notice.

Losses on the front easily explain drastic actions by the authorities. In a report from May 25, 2024, Ukrainians claimed that since the beginning of the conflict, they have eliminated (killed, wounded, missing, and captured) 505,000 Russians.

And yet, Putin is facing the highest loss rate in his army. According to estimates provided in mid-July by the British Ministry of Defence, only in May and June, over 70,000 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded.

The report reads that in 2024, Russian losses remained high, and in May, the average daily personnel losses of Russian troops were over 1,200—the highest since the beginning of the war.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin does not plan to send conscripts to the occupied territories of Ukraine or to the front. Currently, they are being trained to rebuild the army's mobilization capabilities, and soldiers who want to stay and have signed long-term contracts will be sent to guard borders and perform non-combat tasks—at least for the first year.

According to analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War, the decision is motivated by the fear that public dissatisfaction with how the war is conducted might increase. Therefore, the army continues to rely on mobilizing reservists over 30.

The Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defence are doing everything possible to avoid a new mobilization. This, contrary to the impression created by propaganda, is not widely approved. Hence, the authorities are offering various incentives to potential cannon fodder. About 30,000 Russians are tempted by this monthly.

The secret lies in the money—volunteers receive approximately $2,150 just for signing a contract. Additionally, volunteers across the Federation receive up to 50% compensation for rent and housing maintenance costs and exemption from property tax.

Moreover, various regions add their bonuses. For example, the authorities of Tatarstan offer the equivalent of about $477 to those who persuade friends or relatives to volunteer for the army. The recruits are to receive a one-time incentive of approximately $15,500.

Foreigners, mainly from former Soviet republics and Africa, are also being lured. Putin signed a decree expediting granting Russian citizenship to foreigners who sign at least a one-year contract for service in the army or "military formations." In such cases, Russian passports are also given to the immediate family members of the volunteers.

According to official data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, 63,600 people applied for residency cards, of which 55,400 were accepted. The number of applicants decreased compared to 2021—there were over 80,000 then. The main reason for the drop in interest, pointed out by consular departments, is the situation on the front.

The tactics used on the front, which are becoming known to Russians, do not increase the number of volunteers. When the lack of experienced command staff became noticeable, the simplest attack methods began to be used, i.e., frontal assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions preceded by artillery preparation. Due to the number of casualties, these assaults are called "meat attacks." When a potential soldier imagines this, no incentive will help.