Kremlin vows retaliation after Ukrainian raid in Kursk region
After the debacle related to the Ukrainian raid in the Kursk region, the Kremlin announced it was preparing a response. "There will probably be two responses. One is the expulsion of Ukrainians from Russian territory, and the other is a massive bombing attack on large cities," says retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski.
We must remember that much of the information provided by Russian media or government representatives is propaganda. Such reports are part of the Russian Federation's information war.
During Monday's Security Council meeting with governors, Vladimir Putin placed the responsibility for the situation in the Kursk region on Russian officials and the military. He also announced retaliation against Ukraine.
Putin said Ukraine is trying to intimidate Russian society and undermine its stability. In his view, the lightning offensive in the Kursk region is related to the Ukrainians' attempt to improve their potential negotiating position. He stated that the enemy will certainly receive a worthy response, and all the objectives we face will undoubtedly be achieved.
According to Reuters, Putin's comments were the most detailed he has made since the Ukrainian attack. "They appeared aimed at demonstrating control of the situation and projecting confidence that the shock offensive would not succeed," writes Reuters.
"Putin will maneuver"
According to retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski, we should expect two Russian responses.
"One is the expulsion of Ukrainian troops from the area they occupied after entering the territory of the Russian Federation. The other is a likely, massive airstrike on targets in Ukraine. These could be large cities: Kiev, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odessa, and Sumy. The Kremlin will probably say that since Kiev committed an act of terror, Russia can respond with a bombing attack," said retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski from the Territorial Defense Forces Training Centre.
As he recalls, Russia will argue that this is an anti-terrorist operation and that the terrorists are the Ukrainians.
"In the Russian doctrine, any attack on their territory should be met with a response using nuclear weapons. But Putin will not respond that way. He will not say that Kiev is waging a full-scale war because he would be criticised for not using nuclear weapons. So he will manoeuvre," says the former military man.
In his opinion, one cannot rule out actions by the Russians on border sections that have not been active so far.
"This is, however, the least likely because Putin does not have the forces to carry them out," believes retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski.
Is the parliament building a target?
As reported on Monday by "The Times," one of the possible targets for the Russians is Kyiv, including key state objects such as the parliament or other government buildings. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence source emphasized that Ukraine is preparing for a possible attack. He also noted that he expects Russia to use significantly larger forces in retaliation than so far.
"It could involve hundreds of air targets, utilizing sophisticated weapons such as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and strike drones. This could pose a significant challenge for our air defence, but I believe we can stop them," said the source from "The Times."
During the meeting, Putin heard that Ukrainians control 28 localities in the Kursk region and managed to penetrate 7.5 miles into Russian territory, which, according to the latest data from the Institute for the Study of War, is untrue. Ukrainian forces' actions are taking place approximately 19 miles into Russia. Ukrainian soldiers have pushed the Russians out from areas including Sudzha and Guyevo, Gornoly, Gogolivka, Rubinshchina, Nizhny Klin, and Mykolaiv-Dariv.
So what might the Russian response look like?
"It costs russians a lot of time and forces"
"In the case of the Kursk region, where hundreds of thousands of forces are fighting, Russia can allocate 10-15 thousand soldiers and transfer them to the area of current fighting. They will face about 5-6 thousand Ukrainian soldiers. Of course, this is always at the expense of something else, but it will not collapse the entire front. Unfortunately, concerning the theatre of war in Ukraine, the Russians have taken the initiative, except for the northern direction. They will want to take the initiative in the Kursk region," says retired Col. Piotr Lewandowski.
In his opinion, the lack of large free operational groups delays the Russian repelling of Ukrainian forces in this region.
"They do not have an entire division or corps. Many units appear there in the strength of a battalion. According to the latest reports, about 11 Russian battalions have appeared there. These are not battalions from 11 brigades or 11 regiments that have moved fully. Some - yes, but most need to be 'patched together.' They need to recreate a command chain: who is subordinate to whom, write orders, and adjust logistics." According to the former military man, this costs the Russians a lot of time and effort.
