Israel launches ground operation in Lebanon as tension escalates
On Monday evening, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a "limited" ground military operation in Lebanese territory. The Israeli army crossed the border and called on residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate. "They won't want to go too deep. They will want to 'clean out' Hezbollah from the border towns," experts say. The retaliatory attack by Iran on Israel began in the evening Eastern Time.
The Israeli army is conducting a "limited" ground operation in southern Lebanon. "Israeli air forces and artillery are supporting the ground forces with precise attacks on military targets," the military stated. It added that soldiers had prepared for this operation for the past few months. Ground forces, artillery, and aviation are all involved in the actions.
The aim of the Israeli military actions is to destroy Hezbollah's offensive capabilities, which, since October 2023, has been shelling northern Israel in parallel with Hamas's attack on Israel, causing about 100,000 Israeli citizens to leave their homes. However, Israel's actions are not limited to border towns, as the army confirmed that it conducted a nighttime shelling of the southern district of Beirut, Dahiya, where several military facilities of Hezbollah, including a weapons production point, were said to be located.
– There is no doubt that we have a war. Although Israel is currently massacring Hezbollah, it cannot count on an easy passage in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has taken heavy blows and is weakened, but that doesn't mean it won't fight. Just on Monday morning, several rockets were fired towards Tel Aviv. Israel cannot count on any leniency – Paweł Rakowski, an expert on the Middle East, told us.
According to Israeli commentators, their troops will not want to go too deep into Lebanese territory and for a long time. "The Israeli army will want to create a border strip of a few kilometres, maybe several - to have a space free of Hezbollah militants. The problem may be that most of the Shia villages, where the Lebanese Shia terrorist organization Hezbollah has long been, are located in this area. So, we can expect fierce fighting. In this context, there is no talk of a quick ceasefire," Rakowski believes.
According to Col. (ret.) Maciej Matysiak, former deputy head of Military Counterintelligence Service and expert at the Stratpoints foundation, it is difficult to predict how long the Israeli attack will last. "One can assume they want to 'clean out' Hezbollah militants up to the Litani River, which is approximately 10-20 kilometres deep into Lebanon. They have already called on the residents of several villages to leave their homes and announced they will shoot at any vehicle. They may, therefore, use a 'fire roller' with aviation support," he says.
In his view, after Israel's nighttime attack, it appears that Hezbollah is "in disarray." "Their rocket responses are almost nonexistent. Israel expected a stronger reaction, nationwide alarms were introduced, and in Tel Aviv, residents hid in shelters," says the former military man.
He emphasizes that the Israeli operation aims to disrupt the balance of power among its opponents. "Indirectly, it is a strike against Iran, as Hezbollah is an armed branch funded by Tehran and also supported by Syria. Through the shelling, Hezbollah led to the evacuation of the Israeli population in the north of the country, near the border with Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the first step is to weaken the enemy – by, among other things, killing the organization's leaders, and then taking advantage of its weakness to enter southern Lebanon. This is an attack on a weakened enemy, but also an element of internal Israeli politics in defending the country's residents," Col. Matysiak believes.
Let's remember that as early as Friday evening, Israeli aviation carried out an attack on Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut. The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced that at least six people were killed, and 91 were injured. As the Israeli army reported, the head of the Lebanese Shia terrorist organization Hassan Nasrallah was killed in the attack. The military added that other senior Hezbollah commanders were also killed. According to Paweł Rakowski, Israel's recent significant successes raise some doubts.
"First of all, Iran's stance is puzzling. There are voices that Tehran might have betrayed Hezbollah. They always talk a lot but do nothing. After recent events, Iran should exert military pressure on Israel. And apparently, it avoids war. Tehran has threatened Israeli authorities each time that in the event of a strike on Hezbollah, all Iranian militias or units would rush it. And so far, only Hezbollah fights. The vision of an alliance between Hezbollah and Iran is slowly becoming an illusion," assessed Paweł Rakowski.
And he points out one more important aspect. "Moreover, the new Iranian administration signals that it wants to reach an agreement with the Americans. And it wants to return to the treaty that was negotiated during Barack Obama's time. Most commentators believe that if Kamala Harris wins the election, Tehran will reach an agreement with Washington. Therefore, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has time until November 5, until the U.S. presidential elections, to 'sort things out'," says the Wirtualna Polska interlocutor.
In his opinion, Netanyahu will want, even at the cost of one of the Jewish holidays in October, to use the time and conduct military operations in southern Lebanon. "Also politically, as since the outbreak of the war with Hamas on October 7 last year, Israel has not been so strong for a long time. We should not expect a quick ceasefire in the case of the conflict with Hezbollah. Israel will not quickly withdraw from realizing its plans. And in this case, it will want thousands of residents to return to their homes in northern Israel," concludes Rakowski.
Sylwester Ruszkiewicz
A million residents of Lebanon are fleeing from bombings to the northern part of the country. The PCPM foundation is providing aid – ensuring food, water, mattresses, and blankets. Support is urgently needed as the number of fleeing families continues to grow: pcpm.org.pl/liban
