Israel braces for imminent Iranian retaliation amidst rising tensions
It's no longer a question of "if," but "when." Urgent preparations for an attack from Iran and Hezbollah have begun in Israel. Tehran has rejected calls from the U.S. and Arab countries to ease tensions in the Middle East and is planning retaliation after Tel Aviv’s earlier strike. According to experts, the only question now is the scale of Iran's response.
According to journalists from Axios, who rely on information obtained directly from security services, Iran may attack Israel within a few or several hours. The issue that remains disputed is the method of attack. Representatives from the U.S. and Israel do not have information on whether Iran and the Tehran-affiliated Lebanese Hezbollah plan to carry out a coordinated bombardment or act separately.
Another version suggests an Iranian attack on August 12-13 during the Jewish holiday of Tisha B'Av.
Diplomatic heads from Lebanon and Jordan have gone to Tehran to de-escalate the conflict. As reported by "The Wall Street Journal," Iran informed Arab diplomats that it plans to retaliate against Israel and "doesn’t care if the response may lead to war".
The situation in the Middle East has been tense for many months, but recent events may lead to its escalation. Last week, an Israeli attack on Beirut killed the military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr. The next day, in a very precise attack in Tehran, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed.
Iran and Hamas accuse Israel of his death, but Israel has not confirmed its involvement in the assassination.
In April, as retaliation, Iranians and their regional allies conducted a missile attack on Israel. This was a response to Israel's earlier strike on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus. The April attack did not cause significant damage.
According to Tomasz Rydelek, a Middle East expert and founder of the Puls Lewantu portal, there may be several scenarios for what happens in the coming hours.
- According to some sources, there is still a discussion in Iran about how to respond to Israel. Whether like in April, or in a more decisive and stronger way. Tehran's response may be combined with an attack by Hezbollah, which will want to avenge the death of their military commander, Fuad Shukr, killed in the Israeli attack in Beirut. Yemeni Houthis, who also recently "took a hit" in an Israeli airstrike, may also join the attack. If it is a coordinated and intense attack, Israel might fear a breakthrough in air defence - Tomasz Rydelek told Wirtualna Polska.
He noted that much depends on what Iran wants to "play." - If it repeats the April drone attack, it will be a de-escalation of the conflict through escalation. However, it seems that it will be an attack aimed at inflicting greater losses on Israel. It may also choose another option and strike Israeli energy or drilling platforms in the Mediterranean. If it is a more decisive blow, Israel may respond much more decisively - according to Middle East expert.
A similar view is expressed by Jarosław Kociszewski, an expert at the Stratpoints Foundation and editor-in-chief of new.org.pl.
- We are entering a time when Iran may carry out an attack. Tehran very cleverly "grills" the Israelis with a war of nerves. The Israelis are asking themselves: what can Iran do and when. They are waiting for developments to be able to respond later - Kociszewski told WP.
In his view, Tehran may attack alone, although an attack using Iranian operations in Syria and Lebanon cannot be ruled out.
- Israel violated Iran’s principle, the red line of Iran’s security doctrine. It attacked Iranian territory. What determines Tehran’s response is not the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh but the attack in the capital of Iran. If Israeli services had killed him outside Iran, there might have been no response at all, possibly except for a verbal message - the WP interlocutor assesses.
He believes that the Iranians may conclude that the April attack was too weak.
- The same mechanism worked then. Jerusalem violated Iran's territory by hitting the consulate in the capital of Syria - Damascus. In response, Tehran attacked Jerusalem in such a way to de-escalate the conflict. Currently, they may want to escalate it, Kociszewski believes.
According to NBC television, Israel is preparing for the possibility of multi-day waves of rocket and drone strikes from Iran and its allies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chaired a security cabinet meeting on Sunday evening. The Prime Minister reiterated that every attack will meet a response and that "the state of Israel is in a war on multiple fronts with the Iranian axis of evil".
- It is not in the interest of either country to start a full-scale war. From Iran’s perspective, Tehran is convinced that it has been winning the conflict with Jerusalem so far. Giving Israel a pretext for airstrikes on Iranian targets would be risky. From Israel's perspective, this is not a good time to escalate the conflict. Jerusalem currently has several open fronts in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and the Lebanese border. From Prime Minister Netanyahu's perspective, it would be best to wait out the situation and hope that Donald Trump wins the U.S. election, as he pursued pro-Israel and anti-Iran policies - Tomasz Rydelek, Middle East expert, explained.
- Tehran is capable of hitting harder than in April. It may use more ballistic missiles, and more precisely targeted ones. It may also use more drones, flying from Lebanon and hiding in the terrain. Israel has one major disadvantage. It is located below the level of its neighbouring countries. If something does not fly high along a ballistic curve but flies low and flat, it remains invisible against the background for a long time. If Hezbollah wants to harm Israel in this way, it will do so. The coming hours could prove crucial - stresses Jarosław Kociszewski from the Stratpoints foundation.
