Iowa poll's surprise miss: Harris led, Trump triumphed
The sensational poll from Iowa did not materialize. Just before the election, a polling agency predicted a win for Kamala Harris, while Donald Trump won by a significant margin. The study's author has shared their thoughts.
In a poll published on Saturday by Ann Selzer and the "Des Moines Register," 47 percent of Iowans expressed their intention to vote for Kamala Harris, compared to 44 percent for Trump. This prediction was surprising, given that Iowa supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
Ann Selzer's forecast did not hold true. The "New York Times" reports that with 95 percent of the vote counted, Trump received 56.3 percent support, while his opponent secured 42.3 percent.
The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today. I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me," stated Ann Selzer, as quoted by the "Des Moines Register".
Selzer explained that the errors may have stemmed from several technical factors.
From a technical standpoint, the poll accounted for a margin of error because neither candidate surpassed the 50 percent mark. Supporters of Robert F. Kennedy Jr might have switched their support to Trump in the last days. Also, late-deciding voters could have shifted their stance to favour Trump, as our surveys concluded before making their final choices. Moreover, she noted that early voters who did not reveal their preferences in the surveys might have also played a role in boosting Trump's results.
