Global population growth to peak at 10 billion in the 2060s

It is expected that the Earth's population will halt at approximately 10 billion by the 2060s before beginning to decline. This is a paradigmatic shift, considering that just ten years ago, demographers predicted our population could rise to 12.3 billion.

In wealthier countries, such as Japan, where the population is declining rapidly (100 people fewer every hour), and in Europe, America, and East Asia, where fertility rates have dramatically fallen, we are already observing this trend. It is worth noting that many middle and low-income countries are also heading in this direction. The cause is the demographic transition, a change in the reproductive model due to urbanization, the improvement of the status of women, and access to education and the job market. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the decline in birth rates in many regions of the world.

The population decline can trigger significant economic challenges, such as a decrease in the number of available workers and an increase in the number of people requiring social support. Some countries may attempt to limit emigration to retain people capable of working. On the other hand, this issue might lead to a global rise in migration in search of better living and working conditions.

Whether a declining population will bring relief to the natural environment remains open. On the one hand, fewer people could mean less resource demand and carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, increased prosperity and consumption in developed countries could lead to a higher carbon footprint per person. It thus becomes crucial to ask whether it will be possible to decouple economic growth from its negative environmental impact.

In summary, the future of the global population and its impact on the planet are uncertain. It will be crucial to determine the direction of environmental protection actions and the changes in global consumption patterns.