Global life expectancy to rise by 4.5 years, but health disparities persist

According to the latest forecasts published in "The Lancet," between 2022 and 2050, the average life expectancy of people globally is expected to increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women. This optimistic prediction is made despite existing threats such as geopolitical conflicts, metabolic problems, and environmental issues. People will live longer, but most of the additional years of life may be spent in poor health.

The study authors predict that the largest increase in average life expectancy will occur in countries where it is currently the lowest. This could help balance this indicator across various geographic areas. To a large extent, this trend will be driven by public health initiatives aimed at preventing cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and other infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal perinatal problems, and through nutritional education.

The study, which covered 204 countries and regions, suggests that in the next generation, the health burden related to infectious diseases will shift even more towards non-communicable diseases. Among them are cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. There will also be an increase in exposure to risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, unhealthy diet, and smoking.

As reported by "The Lancet," as the disease burden shifts towards non-communicable diseases, the so-called years of lost life are being replaced by years lived with disability. Therefore, specialists predict that more people will live longer, but with more years spent in poor health. According to them, the global average life expectancy will increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years), however, the expected length of life in good health globally will increase by only 2.6 years over this period: from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050.

Dr. Chris Murray from the University of Washington, one of the study's authors, notes that in addition to the overall increase in average life expectancy, the differences between various geographic regions will decrease (with the largest increase expected in Sub-Saharan Africa). This shows that although health inequalities between regions with the highest and lowest incomes will persist, they will nonetheless diminish.

Dr. Murray adds that the greatest chance to slow down the global disease burden lies in policy interventions aimed at preventing behavioral and metabolic risk factors and mitigating them.

The study is based on the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, which showed that the total number of years lost due to poor health and premature death resulting from metabolic risk factors has increased by as much as 50 percent since 2000. The study authors also analyzed alternative scenarios that allow comparing the potential health effects of various public health interventions.

They noticed the most beneficial impact on people's life expectancy and longevity is the scenario where the greatest attention is focused on improving behavioral and metabolic risks. Closely following in terms of benefits are scenarios related to environmental safety and the improvement of children's nutrition and vaccination programs.

Dr. Murray concludes that we have an enormous opportunity ahead of us to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of the growing metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those associated with lifestyle, such as high blood sugar, high body mass index, and high blood pressure.