Far‑right surges ahead in unprecedented French election turnout

In two days, the French will cast their votes in parliamentary elections. The Ifop survey predicts a record-high turnout of 67%. This is nearly 20 percentage points more than in the 2022 elections. The far-right National Rally (RN) is also leading in the polls with 36.5% support.

The study, conducted by the Ifop centre on behalf of the daily "Le Figaro," TV station LCI, and Sud Radio, which monitors daily voter preferences, was published on Friday afternoon. It was the last day of campaigning before the first round of elections.

According to forecasts, the RN can count on 36.5% of the votes. This means that the party, which enjoys the support of part of the right-wing Republicans (LR), has a chance to win between 225 and 265 seats. The RN, formerly known as the National Front under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, is now closer than ever to gaining an absolute majority in parliament (289 seats) in the second round of elections, scheduled for July 7, based on predictions by the daily "Le Figaro."

It's worth noting that support for the RN is growing, as the party has gained 2.5 percentage points in the polls over the last week.

On the other hand, support for the left-wing alliance, running in the elections as the New People's Front (NFP), remains unchanged at 29%. Such a result will allow the left to obtain between 170 and 200 seats. Among the parties forming this alliance, the far-left Unsubmissive France (LFI) can receive the most seats - 90.

Renaissance, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party, along with its allies, can count on 70-100 seats in parliament. Support for this political force fell by 0.5 percentage points over the week to 20.5%.

In fourth place is that part of LR that did not decide to ally with Le Pen. With 7% of the votes, it might win between 30 and 60 seats in the National Assembly.

Two other surveys published on Friday brought other results, albeit still with the far right's dominant position.

35% for RN, 27.5% for the left, and 21% for Macron’s camp - these are the survey results conducted by the Odoxa Centre for the weekly "Le Nouvel Obs". The projection of the number of seats indicates that RN may win between 265 and 305 seats, giving it a chance for an absolute majority.

A poll produced similar results for the weekly "Challenges" conducted by Toluna/Harris Interactive. This survey also allows for the RN to gain an absolute majority with the support of part of the Republicans. The RN alone can count on 220-260 seats, and an additional 20-35 seats could be secured by former Republican leader Eric Ciotti (excluded by the party leadership for supporting the RN) and his supporters. If the maximum forecasts are confirmed, the far-right, along with Ciotti, will exceed the threshold of 289 seats - they will have 290, and in the least favourable scenario for them, they will have 240 seats. This solid relative majority allows the RN to propose a prime minister - emphasizes the weekly "Challenges."