Explosion in Rylsk: Russian bomb mishap or Ukrainian attack?
In Rylsk, a powerful explosion resulted in the deaths of six Russians and numerous injuries. The Russians accuse the Ukrainians, but the reality may differ. Here's what might have happened in Rylsk.
The Russians claim that the Ukrainians shelled the centre of Rylsk using an M142 HIMARS launcher with GMLRS rockets or MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles. However, photos and recordings from the strike site show a crater that is too large for a GMLRS rocket warhead or unlikely to result from MGM-140 ATACMS missiles with a cluster warhead, as noted by Ukrainian expert Oleksandr Kovalenko in an article in the Unian agency.
He suggests that the Russians most likely lost a FAB aircraft bomb weighing about 250 kilograms. This wouldn't be the first occurrence, as several such bombs with UMPK modules have also landed on Russian territory, including Belgorod and its surrounding areas.
FAB bombs with UMPK module
FAB bombs with UMPK (Unified Set of Planning and Correction Modules) modules currently represent one of the most effective Russian weapons against Ukraine. They are essentially a copy of JDAM-ER modules, which, after adding an additional module to an old unguided, free-falling aircraft bomb, create a precision weapon with significant destructive power.
Initially, the Russians used stockpiles from the USSR, but they have recently resumed production of new units. The technique involves equipping the bomb with a guidance section based on a combination of inertial and satellite navigation, stabilizers capable of flight path corrections, and deployable wings.
This results in a bomb capable of hitting a target with precision within a few or dozens of metres from approximately 60-70 kilometres if released from a high altitude. The Russians use such bombs to attack targets, with releases occurring deep within their territory. This practice, combined with inconsistent production quality, causes some bombs to malfunction and miss their intended targets. In this case, one landed on Rylsk.
Dangerous and effective Russian weapons
Kovalenko estimates the crater to be from a 250-kilogram variant containing about 100 kilograms of TNT. It's not the largest version, as the Russians also deploy bombs weighing up to 1,500 kilograms and 3,000 kilograms, which have much greater destructive power.
Notably, even against the 250-kilogram variant, no field fortifications can provide adequate protection, and a Su-34 aircraft can carry more of these compared to larger munitions. The Russians use these bombs to target Ukrainian positions detected by what are dubbed "meat assaults."
Unfortunately, due to the shortage of medium-range air defence systems such as the S-300, Patriot, or SAMP/T, Ukrainians must continually retreat to minimize casualties. By employing this strategy, the Russians advance, particularly in the Donetsk region.
