Europe steps up in artillery race as U.S. halts Ukraine aid
The halt of supplies from the USA to Ukraine means that European countries must fill the gap. This is particularly important in the context of ammunition, which is used in large quantities on the front every day. We explain whether, three years after the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Europe can do this.
The war in Ukraine is the largest full-scale conflict in Europe since World War II. However, its characteristics currently resemble those of World War I, enriched with technological innovations such as precision ammunition and drones.
Ukraine can use up to 3,000-8,000 shells daily, which requires a production capacity of up to 100,000 shells monthly. This volume was not achievable for European firms in 2022, but after three years of war, this situation has improved in many countries. Now, production at one million shells annually may be realistic, and according to some declarations, it is possible to reach even two million by 2026.
European artillery ammunition production
Germany produced less than 30,000 shells annually in 2022. Still, political decisions and actions by the country's largest defense company, Rheinmetall, have led it to aim for a production volume of 700,000 shells annually by 2025.
However, this number also includes the production capacity of Rheinmetall's Denel plant in South Africa, which faces a political ban from the local government on producing ammunition for Ukraine. Therefore, Rheinmetall's production volume may be somewhat smaller.
One of the larger ammunition producers in Europe is primarily the Nammo corporation, which has factories in Norway, Finland, and Sweden. Large factories typically had a production capacity of 20,000-30,000 shells annually, but their efficiency has increased recently. For instance, Nammo's factories in the Swedish city of Karlskoga doubled their production by the end of 2024, and Finland's Nammo Lapua Oy plant had similar declarations in 2023.
The total production of Scandinavian countries is estimated to range from 100,000 to 200,000 shells annually. Additionally, Denmark decided to reactivate a shuttered ammunition factory.
Another potential source of ammunition for Ukraine is the French Nexter corporation, which currently produces 50,000 shells annually and plans to expand to 400,000 within three years. Kyiv can also rely on British BAE Systems factories, which, according to their declarations, aim to increase production capacity eightfold by 2026. Additional support may come from Czech Republic and Slovakia factories, capable of producing between 100,000 and 200,000 shells annually. Furthermore, Poland's production capabilities currently range from 30,000 to 40,000 shells each year. Warsaw intends to boost production in the coming years, like other European countries.
Of course, expanding capabilities must be accompanied by government orders and redirecting current production toward Ukraine, as current production capabilities are also intended for national needs and export customers. However, some Western countries may, in the short term, allocate part of their strategic resources.
This is not the estimated 4 million shells annually supported by Russia, which is significantly bolstered by supplies from North Korea. However, with the use of modern 155 mm artillery systems, a significant effect can be achieved with fewer shells. Following the withdrawal of U.S. support to Ukraine, their delivery should be increased even at the cost of temporarily weakening the defensive capabilities of some European countries.
