NewsEurope faces evolving threats as Russia repositions post-Ukraine

Europe faces evolving threats as Russia repositions post-Ukraine

The Danish Military Intelligence (FE) has outlined three potential threat scenarios to Europe from Russia following the conclusion of the war in Ukraine. These scenarios assume the United States will not support European NATO countries, and these countries will not strengthen their defences adequately.

Danish intelligence on the threat from Russia
Danish intelligence on the threat from Russia
Images source: © Getty Images | The Washington Post
Tomasz Waleński

According to FE, it is unlikely that Russia will initiate a war against NATO countries while it continues military operations in Ukraine. However, once the conflict ends, Russia may be able to reallocate significant military resources, bolstering its military capabilities and posing a direct threat to NATO.

The report evaluates that Russia will require approximately six months post-war with Ukraine to potentially wage a local conflict in a neighbouring country. Within two years, Russia could be a tangible threat to one or more NATO countries and prepared for a regional conflict involving several countries in the Baltic Sea region.

Long-term threat

Danish intelligence projects that in approximately five years, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent. This scenario might unfold if the Kremlin perceives that the United States will not assist Europe and European NATO countries do not arm themselves at a pace similar to Russia.

The report from Danish military intelligence stresses that Europe must enhance its defence capabilities to mitigate potential threats from Russia. The Danish service underscores the importance of cooperation and coordinated efforts within NATO to secure the continent.