EU trade war prospects: Balancing benefits and challenges
Selected EU countries could benefit from Donald Trump's policies and the trade war, where the main parties to the conflict will be the US and China, as assessed by the consulting firm Crido. They also added that investments in European energy should focus on reducing energy prices.
According to Crido, the decisions of US President-elect Donald Trump related to state protectionism, such as increasing tariffs, could negatively affect the attractiveness of the European Union and Poland as investment destinations.
How some countries might benefit from Trump's policies
Some EU countries, however, could benefit from Donald Trump's policies and the trade war, where the main parties to the conflict will be the US and China.
"This will happen if trade transactions in the defence or energy sectors between European NATO countries and the United States, and potential benefits from this for the American budget, ease the trade policy concerning the export of European goods to the US," they indicated.
In this scenario, as noted by the authors, EU countries can expect to attract some American investments into Europe, including those transferred from China.
In the second scenario, which may overlap with the first, there is expected to be "a striving for stronger competitiveness and independence from the US on the part of the EU, after years of lagging behind."
According to Crido, in both these scenarios, "Europe must invest in new technologies and innovation, but also reduce legal barriers and bureaucracy," which, in the company's view, negatively affects European businesses. Additionally, it is emphasized that investments in energy transformation should not focus "exclusively on the ecological effect, but also on reducing electricity prices in EU countries."
The consulting firm notes that the decisive factors in choosing an investment location will be innovation, energy efficiency, and the availability of modern technologies. "Keeping pace with technological progress and cheap energy for a partner like the USA will require significant capital expenditure from EU countries," they stated. Therefore, as they added, there is an expectation that the European Commission will initiate funds supporting energy, innovation, industry, and science.
