Chinese stealth bomber H‑20 inches closer to reveal

The 15th edition of Airshow China 2024, scheduled for November 12 to 17, 2024, promises to be full of surprises, courtesy of both the hosts and their invited guests. During the event, the Russians will showcase their top fighter, the fifth-generation Su-57, which attracts more sarcastic comments than admiration. Meanwhile, the Chinese are set to debut their second stealth fighter, the J-35A. Photos of the still-mysterious J-20 fighter cockpit, also expected at the show, have emerged online.

Aviation experts had anticipated that Airshow China 2024 might be the perfect setting for the debut of the Chinese strategic bomber Xi'an H-20. However, the National Interest service suggests this is more likely to occur during Airshow China 2026. This delay will allow Beijing to refine the aircraft, which could pose a significant challenge to American strategic bombers like the B-2 Spirit and its successor, the B-21 Raider bombers.

Photos available on Chinese social media likely do not depict the final concept of the H-20 but highlight the direction the Chinese are taking in its design. The plane is being developed in a flying wing configuration, featuring a tailless design without a distinct fuselage or empennage. This can reduce fuel consumption and decrease the chance of detection by advanced radar and missile systems, enhancing its potential during missions over contested or enemy territories.

According to Army Recognition, "it is expected that the H-20 will be a highly advanced asset in China's strategic arsenal, designed for extended range, large payloads, and increased survivability in contested environments." While the exact specifications are unknown, there are claims that its range will reach up to 8,500 kilometres, and the stealth-equipped plane will be capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons. Its payload capacity is anticipated to be at least 10,000 kilograms. Importantly, unlike Beijing's current Xi'an H-6 bombers, which are licensed versions of the Soviet Tupolev Tu-16, the H-20 is a native project.

Therefore, the H-20 could become crucial to China's nuclear triad and state deterrence strategy. However, analysts from National Interest note that American officials do not express much concern about the H-20 project's progress. The Pentagon is reportedly skeptical of its capabilities. Some Americans, including Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, believe the H-20 is far behind the capabilities offered by future U.S. bombers, the B-21 Raider, and lags behind the B-2 Spirit bombers.

Nonetheless, the overall pace of China's military expansion is concerning. Beijing is dedicating substantial resources to developing its own weapons systems, fighters, and the aforementioned bombers. It is also increasing its stockpile of nuclear weapons, as noted in a recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S. military intelligence agency within the Pentagon. The document reveals that in 2020, Beijing possessed about 200 operational nuclear warheads, currently holds around 500, and that number could surpass a thousand by 2030.