Russia's elusive checkmate: Su‑75 prototype push remains uncertain

The world first learned about the new fifth-generation Su-75 fighter project in 2021, when Russia presented its model at the MAKS 2021 International Aviation and Space Salon. Initially, not much information was disclosed about the aircraft's capabilities and specifications. This did not prevent Russia from seeking buyers for the "non-existent" fighter, intended for both the domestic market and foreign contractors.

The Russians primarily counted on India in this regard—offering them both the aircraft and the opportunity to participate in their development. However, Delhi, remembering issues with the PAK FA program, or the Su-57 fighter construction program, where there were discrepancies regarding technology transfer and machine specifications, showed little interest in Russia's proposal. India repeatedly emphasizes its focus on its own Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) fighter development program.

The attractiveness of the Russian offer was not enhanced by the fact that, so far, the Kremlin has not built a single Su-75 prototype, although it was initially announced that the aircraft's first flight would occur in 2023 and that serial production would start in 2026. These plans are now outdated. As Yuri Kondratyev announced, the first two Su-75 prototypes will be completed in 2025, although these declarations raise many doubts.

Kondratyev explained that one prototype is intended for ground static tests and the other for flight tests. He also emphasized that the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ), where they are being developed, will focus on producing Su-35S and Su-57 fighters in 2025—models that Russia is actively using in Ukraine.

The plans related to the development and production of these fighters seem ambitious. However, in 2024, according to data collected and presented by Military Watch Magazine, Russia delivered a total of 14 batches of combat aircraft to its military in various configurations. These included three batches of Su-57, four batches of Su-35, six batches of Su-34, and one batch of Su-30SM. The exact number of aircraft in each batch remains unknown.

Analyses by Ukraine's Defense Express service indicate that in 2022, Russia delivered 6 Su-57 fighters, 7 Su-35s, 10 Su-34s, 4 Su-30SMs, and 2 Yak-130 aircraft. This amounts to a total of 29 new and upgraded machines. In 2023, estimates suggested deliveries of 26 aircraft, including 2 Su-57s (Russian sources report the number as 8), 10 Su-35s, 6 Su-34s, 4 Su-30SMs, and 4 Yak-130s. The data suggest Russia is capable of producing around 30 combat and training aircraft even with the ongoing war.

The limitations in Russia's production of new combat aircraft are more significant than it might seem at first glance. While the Kremlin attempts to maintain an image of technological independence, the reality shows that sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine have significantly impacted the military industry's capabilities. A key issue is access to advanced electronics, aviation components, and dual-use technologies previously imported from the West.

The problem is not only the availability of key components and the production rate but also quality—lack of access to modern components affects reliability and combat effectiveness. It is worth noting that sanctions have cut Russia off from legal supplies of precision integrated circuits, avionics systems, and AESA radar components.

In response, Moscow has tried to develop its own substitutes, but the results of these efforts remain limited. Russia also seeks to supplement components obtained from its allies, including those procured through smuggling with false documentation or sold as civilian components and then adapted for military use.