China's nuclear ambitions reshape global naval power balance

Only two countries currently operate nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The United States has 11 such carriers (Nimitz-class, gradually being replaced by the Gerald R. Ford class), and France has one, the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Construction of the successor to the latter – the aircraft carrier provisionally named PANG (porte-avions de nouvelle génération, French for new-generation aircraft carrier) – has already begun.

The American and French aircraft carriers, besides being equipped with nuclear power plants, are also CATOBAR class vessels – planes launch using catapults and land with the help of arresting cables. This system provides aircraft carriers with the greatest combat capabilities.

China currently operates three aircraft carriers – Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian (undergoing sea trials). The newest and largest, displacing about 80,000 metric tonnes, Fujian is also a CATOBAR class vessel, but – unlike the American and French counterparts – it has conventional propulsion.

Beijing's plan anticipates that only the fourth carrier, under construction now, will have nuclear propulsion.

Information about this vessel began to surface around 2018. The China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, responsible for its construction, revealed that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier would join the list of ships built by this company. One industry service reported the commencement of steel cutting for the hull of the new large vessel.

According to publicly available information, the new aircraft carrier is expected to displace over 110,000 metric tonnes – slightly more than American supercarriers, making it potentially the largest warship in the world.

For years, the lack of specific, official information led to numerous guesses and speculations about the Type 004 aircraft carrier. However, a recent discovery by a team from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California seems to have changed the situation.

According to the Space 24 service, American scientists suspected that a plutonium production reactor was being built on the outskirts of Leshan. However, analysis of available satellite images concluded that China is constructing a prototype reactor for a large warship.

This claim is supported by satellite image analysis, tender documentation, environmental studies, and reports of complaints by local residents.

Although there is a long way to go from building a prototype reactor to completing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the appearance of such vessels in the Chinese fleet will represent a significant change in the balance of power.

Aircraft carriers such as Liaoning and Shandong, while impressive and important for propaganda, have limited capabilities. They have a small air group and autonomy, and aircraft take off using a bow ramp – a part of the deck resembling a ski jump.

This solution simplifies the design but affects the combat capabilities of the aircraft carrier. Heavier aircraft, like early warning and control planes, cannot utilize it. Moreover, combat aircraft taking off this way must be as light as possible, which means they take off with incomplete weapons and fuel supplies.

This is evident in materials provided by the Chinese navy, where J-15 aircraft taking off from these carriers are either unarmed or carry only lightweight short-range air-to-air missiles.

This problem can be somewhat mitigated using UPAZ-1A kits purchased from Russia, allowing for "buddy tanking." This is air refuelling where another aircraft of the same class (a combat aircraft) acts as the fuel donor. Although Beijing has these kits, there is no confirmation that they have been used on aircraft carriers.

That's why China's potential military conflict plan with the United States has, for years, been based on the old Soviet-era A2/AD concept (anti-access/area denial) and, as Paweł Behrendt notes on the Konflikty service, "was an attempt to apply the concept of in-depth defence from land to the sea."

The entry of Chinese nuclear-powered aircraft carriers into service could completely change this situation. Moreover, as Paweł Behrendt notes, China does not have to replicate the American concept, where the aircraft carrier is the primary sea strike force, covered by other vessels.

As noted by the British think-tank IISS (The International Institute for Strategic Studies), the backbone of the Chinese navy's strike forces can be missile destroyers, like the Type 055 ships equipped, among others, with YJ-21 ballistic missiles. These are the largest in their class worldwide, with a displacement of about 13,000 metric tonnes and armed with 112 vertical launch systems.

Nuclear aircraft carriers would then be reduced to providing escort and air support, with the main strike force consisting of ships with ballistic and cruise missiles.

Such organized teams of the Chinese fleet might support a potential landing on Taiwan, combat enemy fleets, and execute powerful missile strikes on American bases in the Pacific, such as Guam or Wake.