Belarus sets early election in climate of fear and control
The Belarusian parliament has announced that the presidential elections will take place in January, even though they had time to organize them until July. According to the opposition, this results from "fear of their own selection." As former Belarusian ambassador to Poland Pavel Latushka says, an opposition candidate cannot run in the elections. "We have an atmosphere of fear and terror," he says in an interview.
During the session of the Belarusian parliament, it was announced that the presidential elections will be held on January 26, 2025. The Central Election Commission said it is "ready to start the election campaign," said its chairman Igor Karpenko.
Many commentators are surprised by this. According to the constitution, the government had time to organize the elections until July 20. Meanwhile, they decided on them more than six months in advance. The authorities explain that the early elections are related to the implementation of a "five-year socio-economic development plan."
The opposition argues that such an early date indicates the regime's concerns. "It shows a fear of their own (Alexander Lukashenko's - ed.) selection. He gave little time to form initiative groups of candidates, so that no competitors would be able to act, organize a campaign," says former Belarusian ambassador to Poland Pavel Latushka in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.
According to him, "only a madman can try" actual competition with Lukashenko. "It is simply impossible for any opposition candidate to run in the elections," he says. "There will probably be so-called spoilers, i.e., a controlled opposition. Anyone else who would want to oppose Lukashenko guarantees themselves a straightforward path to prison," he emphasizes.
He recalls that some candidates from the 2020 elections are in prison (such as Siarhei Tsikhanouski) or are in exile because staying in the country threatens them with being sent to penal colonies.
"We have an atmosphere of fear and terror"
"All opposition parties and independent media have been eliminated. Every day people are being detained and sentenced. We have an atmosphere of fear and terror. Just the day before yesterday, a woman, a mother of three, was detained for criticizing Lukashenko on social media," he describes.
However, the opposition has a certain plan. "As a coalition of democratic forces, we know that the majority of society does not want Lukashenko. We will publish a strategy for them. We will propose using the 'election' day to come to the polls and vote against everyone," says Latushka.
He also indicates that the opposition will reach out to Belarusians living outside the country who have been deprived of their voting rights. "We will organize rallies in different parts of the world, including in Warsaw. On the day of what Lukashenko calls elections, we will show our opposition," he says.
Russian military presence at the elections?
Latushka also points out another interesting issue. "The elections" were announced just when Russian Defence Minister Andrey Belousov arrived in Minsk. During the meeting, his Belarusian counterpart Viktar Khrenin announced that joint military maneuvers Zapad-2025 would be organized next year.
"These exercises will be the main event of the joint training of military command centres and forces in 2025 and will create conditions for further improvement of the existing military security system of the Union State," said Khrenin.
It is not yet known when exactly the exercises will take place. The opposition indicates that they may coincide with the presidential elections.
"It cannot be ruled out that these elections may take place under the control of Russia," says Latushka.
"Lukashenko is so afraid of society that it cannot even be ruled out that he will want the Russian army to be present in the country during the election," he adds.
The previous presidential elections in Belarus were held on August 8, 2021. Officially, Alexander Lukashenko received over 80% of the votes. However, the opposition and the international community considered that the results were falsified, pointing to numerous irregularities.
After the elections, a series of protests occurred, which were suppressed. As a result, many Belarusians ended up in prison. Some left the country.
