Belarus plans border provocations amid military drills with China
Belarusian law enforcement agencies are preparing for provocations at the border with Ukraine. This is to showcase their capabilities to China, with whom Belarus is conducting military maneuvers, and to warn Kyiv. Meanwhile, Lukashenko announced the withdrawal of his troops from the border area.
Many of the reports from Russian or Belarusian state media, or Kremlin or Belarusian officials, are likely not true. Such reports may be part of an information war by the Russian Federation.
“They are planning to resort to provocations, which they will successfully prevent themselves in order to show their Chinese counterparts their capabilities. From July 8 to 19, the first joint exercises of the special operations forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces and the military of the People’s Liberation Army of China take place in the territory of the Republic of Belarus. The exercises have the status of 'anti-terrorist,'” reported the National Resistance Center of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
After "successfully preventing" (alleged) armed provocations at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, Belarusian security forces will try to blame Ukraine.
The Resistance Center also reported that previously, the Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Belarus Armed Forces, Uladzimir Kupryianuk, stated that there is a threat of armed provocations in Belarus "in the context of the increasing presence of special forces, mercenaries and various volunteer groups in the border areas."
According to the Ukrainian side, this statement was meant to lay the groundwork for Belarus to carry out provocations. For the Belarusian side, it would be advantageous to demonstrate their security forces' ability to respond to threats in the context of Belarus joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the first joint military exercises of both countries.
Lukashenko issued an order
At the same time, on Saturday, Alexander Lukashenko announced a reduction of tension at the border with Ukraine, declaring that the situation at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border has been stabilized. Therefore, they will withdraw the troops from the border and not fight or concentrate the armed forces except for special units.
“Now we have no problems with the Ukrainians, and I hope we won't have any,” he stated.
