American military aid bolsters Ukraine through 2025, cautious defense advised

Kyiv can count on American military aid reaching $8 billion, securing Ukraine's needs until February 2025. Experts from the Centre for Eastern Studies predict that Ukraine must avoid offensive actions until then.

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently visited the United States, where he spoke at the UN General Assembly and met with many key American politicians, including Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

- It was an attempt to take advantage of the momentum that Joe Biden's administration in Washington was creating for the authorities in Kyiv - assessed Andrzej Kohut, an Americanist from the Centre for Eastern Studies.

According to Kohut, the main goal of Zelensky's visit was to convince the Biden administration to increase aid for Ukraine. Despite the lack of an official reaction from Washington, unofficial press leaks suggest that the Americans saw the same expectations previously expressed by Ukraine, such as quick inclusion in NATO and increasing military aid.

- The Americans saw the same expectations that Ukraine had previously expressed in a maximalist version, to bring Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible, to allow the use of American missiles to strike deep inside Russia, and to maximally increase aid for Kyiv. If evaluating Zelensky's visit in terms of persuading the Americans to the victory plan, there is likely no success - assessed Kohut in an interview.

Nonetheless, President Biden announced military aid to Ukraine worth about $8 billion, which is part of a package passed by the US Congress in April.

Jacek Tarociński, an Centre for Eastern Studies analyst, explained that $5.5 billion comes from the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and another $2.4 billion comes from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). This aid includes the delivery of ammunition for air defence and unmanned systems.

Kohut noted that the Biden administration is pressing to spend $2.4 billion by the end of his term, fearing a change in the President in the White House.

- The Biden administration fears that if the President in the White House changes, even if these funds are still available, they may not be used at all or used in a more limited scope. Hence the pressure to use everything provided for in the package passed by Congress by the end of Biden's term in April 2024, which totals $61 billion - said Kohut.

Tarociński assessed that for Ukraine to maintain its engagement in the war, it needs American aid worth from half a billion to a billion dollars a month. The currently granted $8 billion should suffice until February 2025.

The November elections are also associated with changes in the US Congress, which may affect future decisions regarding aid to Ukraine.

- Regardless of who will have the majority in both houses of Congress, polls indicate that it will be small, which means instability and difficulties in passing another package for Ukraine, as it was in the ending term - notes Tarociński.

It is difficult to predict the impact of the presidential election results on aid to Ukraine. If Kamala Harris wins, Biden's policy will continue, while the Trump administration might aim to freeze the conflict or pursue even greater military actions.

- As for a potential Donald Trump administration, it's probably hard to doubt that the promises coming from Trump's mouth are not merely campaign slogans. Looking at what is forming in Trump's background, what political plans are being written there, it seems that indeed a potential Republican administration will aim to freeze this conflict as soon as possible and start peace negotiations - believes Kohut.

Zelensky also visited an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania, which was met with criticism from Republicans, who saw it as siding with Democrats.

The American daily "Wall Street Journal" previously reported that Ukraine is saving artillery ammunition, which may be repeated at the beginning of 2025 due to potential supply problems.

- Ukraine certainly cannot afford risky offensive actions, it must remain on the defensive, moreover, it must plan for long-term defence because there is no certainty about what will happen later" - noted Tarociński.

Biden announced the transfer of the third Patriot air defence system battery to Ukraine, which this time will come from stockpiles.

Additionally, Ukraine will receive AGM-154 JSOW, allowing precise strikes on targets. Tarociński pointed out the limited range of this weaponry due to Russian air defences.

Biden also announced training for additional Ukrainian F-16 pilots, which will be a significant effort for the USA, but at the same time, this number may be insufficient from Ukraine's perspective.

Training Ukrainian pilots could be more effective with the support of international allies such as France, the UK, or Romania.

The White House announced that on October 12, at 10:00 AM Eastern Time, a high-level meeting of the Ramstein Group will be held in Germany, where President Biden will host, and Ukraine will be represented by Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Ramstein Group, an alliance of over 50 countries, was formed in response to the Russian invasion and aims to provide Ukraine with regular military aid.