Africa's wheat dependence grows amid Russian supply shifts
Africa is becoming a major market for Russian grain, and Russia has made many countries on the continent dependent, even those that had never used wheat before.
Wheat production in Africa is relatively low, so most countries rely on imports to meet demand.
Benin is dependent on it by as much as 99.8%. This small country, by African standards, is a significant producer of wheat flour in this part of the continent, which it exports to Niger, Burkina Faso, as well as to France and Germany.
Banana flour instead of wheat
Russia's aggression against Ukraine has made wheat supplies uncertain and increased their prices by as much as 30% over the past year.
Many farmers in Benin have returned to ancient traditions and started producing flour from bananas. This trend is also visible in Togo, Liberia, and other West African countries, which are experiencing the worst food crisis in history. This crisis is caused in some places by Islamist uprisings forcing millions of farmers to abandon their lands, and in others by floods and droughts, with the war in Ukraine further worsening the situation.
Russia's "wheat yoke"
However, the largest African recipient of Russian wheat is Egypt, which purchased 1.4 million tonnes in September. Russia also sells wheat to Algeria, Mozambique, Tunisia, Tanzania, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and even Namibia and Botswana, countries whose cuisine traditionally relies on corn.
In Kenya, Russia has become the seventh largest supplier of this grain, whereas last year it was ninth. Moroccan buyers have returned to purchasing Russian wheat after a two-year break, under pressure from local millers, and Moscow has become one of its largest suppliers. This North African country will buy more Russian wheat this season than French wheat because France, its main supplier, is expected to export much less due to rain damage to crops.
Cheaper Russian grain
Africa switched to Russian grain this year primarily because it was cheaper than Ukrainian grain. At the beginning of October, Russian wheat was priced at $236 per tonne in the Egyptian port of Alexandria, compared to $245 for Ukrainian wheat. Ukraine has focused on markets other than Africa and is currently exporting wheat to countries including Indonesia and Vietnam.
However, next year could be much worse for Russian wheat. Russian crop yields are expected to drop to their lowest level in 11 years by 2025. Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has been hit by a severe drought that threatens its winter crops. According to Reuters, wheat production in Russia has been declining since reaching a record 158 million tonnes in 2022. Last year, yields fell to 147 million tonnes, and this year's forecast has been lowered to 132 million tonnes.
Problem for African countries
African countries will painfully feel the shortage. According to the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina, in African countries unprepared for a food crisis, the shortfall in wheat, whose demand on the continent has risen to over 75 million tonnes, could lead to serious social unrest.
Agricultural market experts are seeking ways to address this crisis at the ongoing "West and Central Africa Wheat Summit 2024" in Abuja, Nigeria, taking place from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM ET.
