Yellowstone supervolcano: Assessing eruption likelihood and risks
The effects of a Yellowstone supervolcano eruption could be dramatic not only for the United States but for the entire globe. Scientists have undertaken an investigation to assess the probability of an eruption of this dormant volcano. Is the awakening of this colossal force threatening us?
Mark Stelten, a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey and the deputy scientific director of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, has decided to estimate the chances of awakening the supervolcano lying dormant beneath Yellowstone Park. As he noted, forecasting is not straightforward. It's not enough to only consider past eruptions and the intervals at which they occurred.
We must combine these types of forecasts with real-time monitoring of the volcano to assess the state of the volcanic system, emphasised the scientist — emphasized the scientist, as quoted by "Newsweek".
At present, the annual probability of a Yellowstone volcano eruption is estimated to be about 0.001 percent. According to Stelten, this value is "probably an overestimate for the short term." Scientists emphasize that there are currently no signs of an impending eruption because the magma system under Yellowstone is mostly solid.
Stelten points out that although we can remain rather calm for now, it cannot be ruled out that this period of stability will eventually end. Scientists will be vigilant for any signs of an impending eruption.
The consequences of a supervolcano eruption could be dramatic
If the Yellowstone supervolcano were to erupt, the effects would be felt in the United States and have global repercussions. Ash would fall from the sky regionally, and the global climate could be affected for years or even decades.
Surrounding areas, including Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, would face pyroclastic flows — a dangerous mix of hot lava blocks, pumice, ash, and volcanic gas with high density. Humanity would not be wiped out entirely, but extreme weather conditions and other effects could severely impact human populations.
Scientists predict that a single large eruption of the Yellowstone supervolcano is unlikely. Multiple eruptions at relatively short intervals are more probable.
