Winter tests resolve: Ukraine battles cold and missile threats

This winter will be the toughest for the defenders of Ukrainian cities because the Ukrainian air defence is noticeably weaker. Supplies of missiles for Soviet-era air defence systems have already been depleted, and the number of Western-supplied air defence systems capable of intercepting Russian targets (particularly ballistic missiles) is too low to meet the needs.

The Russians will most likely intensively shell critical infrastructure targets (such as power plants or thermal power stations) with missiles they conserved over the past few months. All of this is aimed at breaking the will of the Ukrainian society.

However, the situation may look slightly better for Ukrainian soldiers at the front: they are receiving aid from NATO countries in the form of generators and winter gear and uniforms. Countries such as Germany, Canada, Sweden, and Norway have supplied hundreds of thousands of winter kits, while Russians frequently plead on Telegram for winter clothing.

For example, in early November, Germany announced a winter aid package worth €235 million (CAD 350 million), and a few weeks earlier, the Baltic states and Norway announced a winter package worth €48 million (CAD 71 million). Additionally, numerous charitable fundraising efforts for Ukraine are being organized.

Meanwhile, in the case of the Russians, situations similar to those in 2023 are likely to repeat, where 30% of wounded soldiers in hospitals in Horlivka had frostbite. The Russians can at most count on international aid from Belarus and North Korea. This is significant because Russian winter clothing supplies proved insufficient, and already in 2023, new clothing for Russian troops was to be mass-produced by Belarus.

Warm gloves and socks that protect frostbite-prone hands and feet are very important. In the past two years, Russian soldiers complained about the lack of such equipment and showed on social media how they used makeshift wraps (pieces of fabric used instead of socks in high boots), stating that in the 21st century, they must cope like their grandfathers once did.

Before winter arrives, both sides must contend with mud, which almost completely halts attacks in some areas. Artillery and anti-tank weapons guard stable roads, which are the only options for using heavy equipment.

Using it off-road often results in immobilization, and while retrieving a tank with another machine is possible in the rear, on the main line of combat, such options do not exist. Furthermore, such conditions reveal all maintenance errors, causing equipment to spend more time undergoing repairs.

When frost arrives, all equipment operates more clumsily or fails completely. Weapon parts can freeze, and lubricants can lose their properties. Concealment becomes more difficult, with soldiers particularly vulnerable to detection by thermal drones like the Polish FlyEye or snipers equipped with thermal scopes.

In such conditions, constructing new field fortifications or using a towed howitzer becomes a challenge, as seen in the video footage of winter battles below.

Moreover, any attempt at warming up, such as with a campfire or preparing meals over an open flame, can attract artillery fire or drone attacks with grenades due to the constant presence of thermal drones in the sky. On the other hand, winter also poses challenges for drone pilots because low temperatures negatively affect lithium-ion batteries' performance.

Thermal imaging, which a few decades ago was reserved only for vehicles like tanks, has significantly decreased in price and is now widely available. Equipment like Anafi Thermal Parrot drones or hunting thermal sights like the Pulsar Thermion 2 XP50 PRO allows detection of a human from a distance of up to 1,800 metres.

Thermal imagers are very difficult to deceive, unlike night vision devices. Special coatings designed to reduce light reflection in night vision do not work because thermal imagers rely on the temperature difference between the object and its surroundings.

A human is easier to detect at low temperatures than in positive temperatures. The only way to shield oneself from thermal imaging is to hide one's body heat signature relative to the surroundings or position an obstacle between the thermal imager and the protected object, which is nearly impossible on the move. Thick vegetation can help here, but it is no longer present in winter.

Concealment in stationary conditions can be achieved with Relv Eclipse sheets or similar camouflage nets like those from Berberys, which are stretched over trenches, tents, or firing positions. The permeability of these shields is crucial (they must have the ambient temperature), and soldiers must avoid excessive heat generation, such as from diesel generators or Esbit field stoves.

In contrast, many armed forces have adopted chemical heaters as the standard for heating meals, generating heat through a chemical reaction of iron and magnesium-based compounds. Water acts as the activator, but new solutions have emerged that use air instead.

Thermal imaging has one weakness: fog and dense clouds can reduce its effectiveness. Russians often attack at dusk or dawn when tank temperatures are close to the ambient temperature. They also undertake modifications to exhaust systems to discharge exhaust gases near the ground.

However, these techniques are makeshift compared to modern multi-band camouflages available on some tanks. Additionally, new tanks are equipped with auxiliary power units (APUs) as additional power sources. These are typically small generators producing up to 20 kilowatts, consuming less fuel and generating less heat than the main engine.

These can be found, for example, in T-80 tanks, as well as in Ukrainian-modified T-72 AMTs, American M1A1 Abrams and Polish PT-91 Twardy tanks deployed to Ukraine.

Ukraine has much better access to the above solutions than Russia, which will likely reflect on the effectiveness and losses of the forces, similarly to previous years.