Victory Day to Boxing Day: Analyzing the stalemate in the Ukraine conflict

May 9 is Victory Day in Russia. A year ago, the public expected the upcoming counteroffensive to mark a significant victory for the Ukrainians. Today, as Colonel Maciej Korowaj tells o2.pl, it resembles more of a boxing match. "Neither of the boxers is on the ropes, but Russia has more strength," the analyst believes.

Victory Day is a national holiday in Russia. In Moscow, to commemorate the "triumph over Nazism," a parade takes place, attended by veterans. This year, the parade will likely showcase destroyed Western equipment from the battlefields of Ukraine.

Last year, we covered Russian delicacies. Today, the situation appears different according to analysts and experts. The Ukrainians are being forced to retreat, the Russian threat looms over the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, and President Zelensky, previously celebrated, is facing increasing criticism, along with the commander-in-chief he appointed, Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy.

Ukraine's fortune waned with the unsuccessful counteroffensive last year. Ammunition shortages on the front are critical, and the country's authorities have had to mobilize increasingly younger defenders. However, a decisive move in this conflict remains to be seen, as Colonel Maciej Korowaj of the reserves tells o2.pl, Russia has conserved more strength.

Maciej Korowaj, a former Military Intelligence Service operative with experience in Eastern Europe, describes the war as akin to a boxing match. He also, sticking with this metaphor, advises "not to judge the match after just one round."

"[Russia] is waiting for a strategic decision on whether to pursue a 'balanced' war or to deliver a decisive, crushing blow. Of course, it bombards and devastates Ukraine and its infrastructure but hasn't utilized all its resources to strike Ukraine. Currently, Russia's goal is for Europe to grow 'tired' and indifferent towards the war. Yet, the primary objective - eliminating the perceived Ukrainian 'threat to Moscow' - remains unachieved, despite carving a corridor to Crimea. At this point, we can't speak of Russia's victory, which would mean driving Ukrainian forces out of the territories beyond the Dnieper River," Colonel Korowaj explained to o2.pl.

According to the expert, the West is also likely to adopt a more aggressive stance on supplies. Ukraine faced severe ammunition shortages between the end of last year and the beginning of this one. The depletion of Western stockpiles was becoming evident. Now, those supplies have significantly increased.

This raises the question mentioned earlier: Should they continue a "balanced war" or end the conflict with one robust and knockout punch? But the Kwouldn'ts not hoping for that outcome.

While capturing one more region might be portrayed as a success within Russian society, in the West and in China, it won’t be perceived as a victory, in Korowaj's view.

However, something even more concerning exists. The analyst is convinced it's not out of the question - though he highlights, "it's a crazy plan" - the possibility of Russia attacking NATO countries to... end the war in Ukraine.

The conflict we're witnessing, the analyst calls, "a war of small victories". He notes that Russia has encountered not only victories. Its setback included losing control over the western part of the Black Sea, enabling Ukraine to sell its agricultural products without significant issues. However, Ukrainian defeats were notably higher last year.

Despite regaining access to parts of the Black Sea basin, they couldn't fully dismantle the "southern corridor." Thanks to a strategic move by General Mordwiczew, the Russians took Avdiivka, preventing the Ukrainians from targeting Donetsk with artillery. In 2022, the prolonged and fiercely defended Mariupol fell. Last year saw Bakhmut's fall. And on May 9, Russians celebrated capturing Avdiivka.

Returning to the boxing match analogy: for now, Ukraine leads on points, even though the last round inflicted heavy losses. But none of the boxers is here "on the ropes," and nothing indicates that one is about to be. Ukraine retains maneuverability, continues to fight, and although Russia has saved more strength for one, powerful, knockout blow, it hasn't landed it yet - Colonel Korowaj believes.

No clear victory or defeat is visible on either side, says historian and diplomat Professor Hieronim Grala. In conversation with o2.pl, he points out that the "Russian czar has not been toppled, and the 'Ukrainian Mahatma' (a term borrowed by Professor Grala from a book by Zbigniew Parafianowicz), referring to President Zelensky, faces a significant drop in popularity. This is mainly due to his controversial decision to sideline Zaluzhny in favour of General Syrsky, who lacks widespread support and trust, with some viewing him almost as a Russian agent. Ultimately, it was during his leadership that the front receded, a trend that continues.

Russians will display some destroyed Western equipment at the parade, which, while highly propagandistic, they'll count as a success. I'm somewhat surprised by the disdain in the West, as they've done precisely the same thing. Even in our Castle Square, destroyed Russian equipment was exhibited, so criticizing Russians for boasting about destroying enemy equipment is reminiscent of the mindset of Kali - the historian comments.

He adds the Russian military, "to put it plainly, in the meantime - after the embarrassment of its offensive in 2022 and the undeniable successes of the subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive - has learned how to fight". He notes that the narrative (mainly Ukrainian, but not solely), which fed us for a year - that "Ukraine fights for us" - has shifted towards an accusation, sometimes bluntly stating: "Why don't you fight for us?". Such voices, quite often from refugees, are heard in Poland too. Like Colonel Korowaj, he indicates that Russians might deliver a decisive blow, pointing to a timeframe around the end of June and the beginning of July.

Russians have mastered electronic warfare, improving at jamming drones, making them harder to target, while Ukraine, suffering from chronic ammunition shortages, becomes an easier target - he states.

Ukraine, he believes, is weakening. The prospect of defeat is increasingly troubling not the Russians but Ukrainian society, which had been buoyed by assurances of an imminent victory for a year. And the outlook is bleak. After the falls of Mariupol, Bakhmut, and now Avdiivka, Professor Grala says, the assumption that the technological edge of the West would ensure Ukrainian victory is proven optimistic.

It's evident that Challenger and Abrams tanks can also be destroyed, and HIMARS systems can be targeted and eliminated. Hence, Ukrainians, as we have done so many times, are building a Thermopylae myth around the graves of their fallen defenders, but the number of fallen increases while successes dwindle. Moreover, tragically, a considerable portion of potential Spartans opts for safety abroad - laments Professor Grala.

Thus, the Kremlin holds its breath and prepares for the May 9 anniversary celebrations. According to historians, one of the slim consolation might be the numerous historical dates on which Russians primarily commemorated the end of the Great Patriotic War.

They desperately seek points of pride. At this moment, they're bolstering the alliance of throne and altar and will soon portray almost a religious crusade in Ukraine. They're reviving native cults, once again venerating Stalin's prayers to the Moscow Matron. And as centuries ago they fought against "crusaders, Latins, and Lutherans," today they battle against "gayropa, faggots, and LGBT," concludes the former diplomat.

Łukasz Maziewski, o2.pl