Ukraine's resource gamble: Uncertain gains in US deal
Ukraine does not have sufficient natural resources to meet the conditions of the agreement with the USA, experts believe. According to their opinions, there is no evidence of sufficiently large mineral resources, and those that do exist will be difficult to exploit, especially in the war-torn eastern regions of the country.
Donald Trump assured that Americans will recover the billions of dollars invested in Ukraine thanks to the rare earth metals agreement. The USA assumes that the country has resources of 20-50 minerals considered critical, including lithium, graphite, titanium, and uranium. Experts believe their value could exceed CAD 21.5 trillion. This is more than twice the federal budget of the USA in 2024.
However, according to analysts, there is no conclusive evidence that Ukraine has significant rare earth mineral resources, and those it does have are negligible compared to the resources of other countries.
Major failure?
Originally, the idea for such an agreement came from Zelensky, who presented it during his visit to the USA in September, proposing access to Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for further US support. Although this proposal was presented to both the Trump and Biden administrations, it was not taken seriously.
The final agreement, which is to be signed, stipulates the transfer of CAD 505 billion and military equipment to Ukraine. Although the map of potential deposits indicates their presence in various parts of the country, many of these areas are located in conflict zones, including those controlled by Russia. Experts emphasize that extracting minerals, especially rare earths, is extremely costly and time-consuming, and in some areas even impossible to conduct.
Trump, acknowledging the uncertainty regarding resource availability, admitted that deposits may not be as abundant as anticipated, but the agreement is still aimed at transforming Ukraine into a massive economic development project that will benefit both parties.
A step toward ending the war
Trump, continuing his efforts to end the war, refuses to send American troops to Ukraine as peacekeeping forces and opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO.
His administration believes that the natural resources agreement will provide Ukraine with appropriate security guarantees because the USA will have an interest in protecting its investments. Experts note that in the case of such resources, investments in security can be one of the best guarantees of protecting the country from future threats.
Critics also argue that this idea may be somewhat colonial in nature and insufficient, considering the difficulties associated with exploiting Ukraine's natural resources.
