Ukraine's long-range missile challenge: Limited impact on Russia

Military analyst from the Center for Eastern Studies, Jacek Tarociński, emphasized that although Ukraine has received modern missiles from Western partners, its capabilities to attack targets over long distances remain very limited. "The Ukrainians have only a fraction of what NATO countries possess in terms of strike capabilities," he noted in an interview with the Polish Press Agency.

Recent media reports indicate that U.S. President Joe Biden has agreed to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles to attack targets on internationally recognized Russian territory. Previously, Kyiv could only use this weapon on Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia.

Currently, Ukraine has two types of Western missiles capable of striking distances of several hundred kilometres. The first are American ATACMS ballistic missiles, launched from the M270 MLRS and HIMARS ground launchers. The second are French-British SCALP-EG cruise missiles (in France) or Storm Shadow (in the United Kingdom), launched from aircraft.

As Tarociński explained, SCALP-EG missiles are primarily carried by Ukrainian Su-24s, whose numbers are dwindling due to ongoing military operations. He added that France has pledged to provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5F aircraft, modified to carry this weaponry.

SCALP-EG are cruise missiles utilizing stealth technology, making them harder to detect by enemy air defenses. They feature warheads that enable precise strikes on key targets, such as command posts or fortified aircraft hangars.

Although the exact number of SCALP-EG missiles delivered to Ukraine is not disclosed, the analyst estimates it may be over a hundred. "However, these are not quantities sufficient to inflict strategic losses on Russia," noted Tarociński.

Referring to the ATACMS missiles, he pointed out that Ukraine has received, among others, the oldest version with a range of about 160 kilometres and a cluster warhead. Newer versions have a range of up to 300 kilometres and various types of warheads, but their numbers are limited. "The Ukrainians can impact Russia on a tactical level, perhaps a tactical-operational level, but not on a strategic level," the expert assessed.

Tarociński emphasized that apart from these missiles, Ukraine has only limited means to strike at distances over 150 kilometres. "They have few aircraft and that number continues to decrease due to combat operations," he added.

Regarding the capabilities of the Polish Army, the analyst recalled that since 2014, Poland has been purchasing AGM-158A JASSM missiles with a range of over 300 kilometres and AGM-158B JASSM-ER with a range of up to 700 kilometres. They are carried by F-16 aircraft and, in the future, also F-35s. Poland also possesses AGM-154C JSOW glide bombs with a range of over 100 kilometres.

A key element in developing long-range strike capabilities in Poland is also the rocket artillery. Plans include introducing Homar-A systems (HIMARS launchers) and Homar-K (South Korean K239 Chunmoo launchers), capable of utilizing missiles with a range of around 300 kilometres, such as ATACMS or Korean CTM-290.

Poland also possesses NSM anti-ship missiles with a range of several hundred kilometres, which can be used against land targets if necessary. Efforts are also underway for European capabilities in long-range strikes – recently, Poland, France, Germany, and Italy signed a letter of intent in this regard.

Tarociński recalled that since withdrawing from the INF treaty in 2019, the USA is rebuilding land capabilities in Europe for operating medium and intermediate-range missiles. "From 2027, a land-based version of Tomahawk cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles are to be stationed in Germany," he informed.

The Americans are preparing for a potential full-scale war with an equally powerful opponent to deter potential aggressors – emphasized the analyst in a conversation with PAP. He added that this primarily concerns Russia and China.